NFL Week 7 Sunday picks

The 2024 NFL season is in full swing, and the Week 7 card features a number of highly-anticipated matchups, including a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs San Francisco 49ers and an NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.

As we dive into the Week 7 slate head-on, it’s time to get into our predictions and three best bets for this loaded slate of NFL action. 

Predictions

Pick #1: Detroit Lions ML over Minnesota Vikings (+105)

Pick #2: Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills Under 41.5 (-115)

Pick #3: Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Under 43.5 (-115)

Pick #1: Lions ML over Vikings (+105)

On one hand, Minnesota’s defense is certainly better than what the Lions have faced to this point, and Brian Flores should have plenty of blitzes and simulated pressures dialed up to counter Jared Goff and this excellent Detroit offense. However, Detroit's offensive line has done a terrific job of keeping its quarterback clean to this point in the season, plus Goff boasts a completion rate over 70% and 12.1 yards per attempt when blitzed. Given that Goff just torched Minnesota’s defense a season ago, he should thrive once again on Sunday. 

Not only is Goff playing well, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have been making things look easy for the Detroit passing game in recent weeks. With the Lions already ranked tops in the league in EPA per rush on offense, this is the most complete unit in the league at the moment, and that momentum should continue on Sunday against a Vikings team that is due for regression at some point. On the other side, the Week 5 game against the Jets showed that Sam Darnold isn't going to play mistake-free football for the rest of the season. Let’s back the Lions as underdogs in this massive NFC North matchup. 

Pick #2: Titans vs Bills Under 41.5 (-115)

While there are paths for either team to cover the spread in this matchup, the game script suggests that we should be headed for an under. The Titans offense is a disaster on all fronts, but especially in the passing game. Will Levis just registered a measly 3.8 yards per attempt in last week’s loss to a Colts defense that is one of the worst units in football against the pass. It doesn’t help matters that Levis has the worst interception percentage in the league and one of the worst sack rates, which is another glaring issue against an opportunistic Bills defense. 

As for the Tennessee defense, the Titans are tops in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed, so this is a unit that can at least somewhat slow down Josh Allen and a Bills offense that should be content to run the ball and grind this game out. The Bills don’t need much of a lead for their defense, as they currently sit at 9th in EPA per pass and have a trio of cornerbacks that are playing at a Pro Bowl level at the moment, which spells even more trouble for Levis and the Tennessee offense. Let’s take the under with our second best bet.

Pick #3: Eagles vs Giants Under 43.5 (-115)

On the surface, both the Eagles and Giants are teams that have the capability of putting up points, but that hasn’t been the reality of late. On one side, Philadelphia just put forth an uninspiring effort a week ago against the Browns, and the Eagles are now dealing with key injuries to offensive tackle Jordan Mailata and tight end Dallas Goedert – which should hamper its offense. 

As for New York, the Giants just struggled to string together successful drives against a poor Bengals defense at home. Therefore, even though star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is expected to play in this game, I'd still expect Giants head coach Brian Daboll to continue to keep the ball on the ground and for this team to maintain an extremely methodical approach on offense. With that in mind, this is a game that should be played with very few possessions, which sets up nicely for a low-scoring contest at MetLife Stadium.