NFL Week 18 Sunday picks

The final week of the 2024 NFL regular season is upon us. Playoff berths are still to be clinched and even a few division titles are on the line. Let’s focus on the Sunday slate, which is headlined by a primetime matchup between the Vikings and Lions that will decide the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the conference. Here are our expert NFL best bets for Week 18.

Predictions 

Pick #1: Carolina Panthers +8 over Atlanta Falcons (-110) 

Pick #2: Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 over Denver Broncos (-112) 

Pick #3: Miami Dolphins -1 over New York Jets (-108) 

PICK #1: Panthers +8 over Falcons (-110) 

This is one of several Week 18 matchups in which one team has everything to play for and the other has long since been eliminated from playoff contention. Obviously the motivated clubs are safer to back more often than not, but it’s an exception to that rule when Atlanta is giving eight points. And for all intents and purposes, the Falcons are really out of it following a devastating overtime loss to Washington on Sunday Night Football in Week 17. They need Tampa Bay to get upset by New Orleans, but the Buccaneers are 14-point favorites. The Falcons will surely play inspired football on Sunday, but last weekend’s loss is a tough one from which to recover. It’s also worth noting that head coach Raheem Morris’ squad has won by more than six points only twice this season. Asking it to beat an improving Carolina club by at least eight is too much. Bryce Young has four touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last two games and he has gone without an interception in five of his last seven outings. 

PICK #2: Chiefs +10.5 over Broncos (-112) 

Kansas City has already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is great news for Denver, which is in a win-and-in situation. It means the Broncos will be facing backup quarterback Carson Wentz instead of former NFL and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has not confirmed who else will have the day off, but his roster has several other stars who are banged up physically and have no reason to take the field – among them are defensive end Chris Jones, running back Isiah Pacheco, tight end Travis Kelce and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor. All of that is to explain why the visitors are getting 10.5 points. It also says that they will probably lose, but at the same time the spread is likely too big. Wentz is a capable QB with plenty of starting experience and the Broncos aren’t top candidates to completely run any opponent out of the gym. Their offense – led by Bo Nix – has had a few outbursts, but in general it isn't a particularly explosive unit. Moreover, the Broncos have lost two games in a row. They are reeling with the pressure of a playoff berth looming over their heads. 

PICK #3: Dolphins -1 over Jets (-108) 

Unlike Panthers vs. Falcons, this is a matchup in which you want to back the team that is still fighting for its life against an opponent that was mathematically eliminated many weeks ago. The Dolphins are favored by just one point because Snoop Huntley is set to get the start, but they should be able to win and cover regardless. Huntley is a serviceable backup and Miami is a far superior all-around team even if it doesn’t have the edge at quarterback. Of course, it’s not like Aaron Rodgers is setting the world on fire. Rodgers has cooled off since a decent late November and early December stretch, as has his entire team. The Jets are 4-12, lost to the Bills 40-14 last week and have scored 23 total points in their last two contests. New York is ready for the offseason and has nothing left to do except secure the best possible pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.