NFL Week 17 Sunday picks

The penultimate week of the 2024 NFL regular season is upon us. Playoff berths are waiting to be clinched and division titles are on the line. Let’s focus on the Sunday slate, which is headlined in part by Packers vs Vikings, Cowboys vs Eagles and a crunch Sunday Night Football matchup with Falcons vs Commanders. Let’s get into our NFL best bets for Week 17.

Predictions 

Pick #1: Carolina Panthers +7.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-108) 

Pick #2: Tennessee Titans ML over Jacksonville Jaguars (-104) 

Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons +4 over Washington Commanders (-108) 

PICK #1: Panthers +7.5 over Buccaneers (-108) 

Following last week’s loss to Dallas combined with Atlanta’s win over the Giants, Tampa Bay is now looking up at the Falcons in the NFC South. There is a lot of pressure on the Bucs now; they need victories of their own and an Atlanta loss – either on Sunday or in Week 18. On paper, a matchup with the Panthers looks favorable, but Tampa Bay required overtime to beat them in Week 14. 

Moreover, this Carolina team is arguably better than its 4-11 record suggests. Second-year signal caller Bryce Young has improved dramatically since regaining his starting QB position in Week 7, leading his squad to three wins in its last seven games – including a 36-30 overtime success against Arizona last week. Young has played interception-free football in four of the last six contests and has rushed for a TD in three of the last four. Look for the Panthers to keep this one within a touchdown. 

PICK #2: Titans ML over Jaguars (-104) 

This is a meaningless matchup in the grand scheme of things, but don’t tell that to the Titans and Jaguars. They are always going to put their best foot forward against any division rival. In a battle between terrible teams (both 3-12), Jacksonville – despite being favored by a point – is probably even worse. It is coming off back-to-back losses at the hands of the Jets and Raiders. The Jags are dead last in the NFL in passing defense and yards per pass attempt allowed, so Tennessee quarterback Mason Rudolph should be in line for a big day.  

Speaking of Rudolph, this offense has looked a lot better with him taking the snaps compared to Will Levis. That’s not saying a lot, of course, but it’s something. Tennessee lost this matchup at home a few weeks ago, but that was with Levis playing quarterback. Rudolph has led the Titans to 27 and 30 points in their last two outings, so they should be able to score enough points to take care of a moribund Jacksonville opponent. 

PICK #3: Falcons +4 over Commanders (-108) 

It is true that Washington owns the superior record in this matchup (10-5 to Atlanta’s 8-7). However, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in the Commanders. Their defense surrendered 37 points to Tampa Bay, 33 to Cincinnati, 30 to Baltimore, 28 to Pittsburgh and 59 total in a pair of division-rivalry games against Philadelphia. Washington’s Hail Mary victory over Chicago back in October basically summarizes the season, during which it has scraped past a whole host of unspectacular opponents in unconvincing fashion. Head coach Dan Quinn’s club did well to beat the Eagles in Week 16, but that kind of performance is generally an aberration as opposed to the rule.  

Meanwhile, last week was even better for the Falcons. They crushed the Giants 34-7 and regained first place in the NFC South thanks to Tampa Bay’s loss. Michael Penix Jr. made his first start and the rookie quarterback played well enough, completing 18 of 27 attempts for 205 yards. His receivers dropped four passes, including one that resulted in Penix’s lone interception. The whole team seemed to be inspired by the change under center. The Falcons really need to win this one outright, but taking them plus the points is the smartest play on the betting market.