NFL Week 15 Sunday picks

Week 14 in the NFL didn’t exactly deliver many exciting matchups, but that should change with this Sunday’s slate. The Week 15 board gives us a plethora of exciting games, including matchups with Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football.

With the Week 15 slate set to get underway in earnest on Sunday, it’s time to get into our NFL predictions and three best bets for this loaded slate of action. 

Predictions

Pick #1: Buffalo Bills +3 over Detroit Lions (-120)

Pick #2: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles Under 43.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Baltimore Ravens 1st Half -8.5 over New York Giants (-110)

Pick #1: Bills +3 over Lions (-120)

While the Bills are coming off a difficult loss to the Rams a week ago, their offense is still operating at an incredibly high level, thanks in large part to Josh Allen’s tremendous last three games under center. Sunday’s matchup against an aggressive Lions defense (third in blitz rate) is one that is pretty favorable for Allen, as the MVP favorite has tossed 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions against the blitz this season. Allen also dominates against man coverage, which is what the Lions' defense primarily employs. Don’t be surprised if Allen’s legs also become a major factor in this game against a Detroit front seven that is dealing with a number of key injuries heading into this game. With those injuries in mind, Detroit should be in a world of trouble against this elite Bills offense.

On the other side, while it’s nearly impossible to stop this elite Lions offense, Buffalo is outstanding at forcing turnovers and turning those into points. It just so happens that the Lions are due for some regression in that department, particularly when it comes to fumbles and dropped interceptions. Given that this is a game that’s probably going to be decided by a couple of plays late in the fourth quarter, a key turnover could be all that Buffalo needs to at least keep this game within a field goal on the road. 

Pick #2: Steelers vs Eagles Under 43.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses have been largely reliant on the run and that should continue in this battle for Pennsylvania on Sunday, especially with the Steelers expected to miss top wideout George Pickens in this matchup. Pittsburgh averaged just 4.3 yards per play without Pickens in the lineup against the lowly Browns defense a week ago, and Wilson clearly missed the deep-threat capabilities of his top target in that game. As a result, things could look pretty dire for Pittsburgh’s passing attack against a Philadelphia secondary that is ranked second in EPA per pass allowed and is playing its best football of the season at the moment.  

On the other side, while Jalen Hurts has been able to minimize his turnovers by passing less frequently and taking fewer risks, the Eagles are largely relying on their offensive line and the talents of running back Saquon Barkley to convert in big spots in the red zone, and win games as a result. With that in mind, given that Pickens’ status is uncertain for the game, it’s fair to suggest we’re headed for another low-scoring matchup in Philadelphia. 

Pick #3: Ravens 1st Half -8.5 over Giants (-110)

This is a dream spot for a Ravens team that is coming off a bye week, while the Giants have been hit with a rash of key injuries on both sides of the ball and have very little to play for at this point in the season. New York’s offense has been miserable all year long, and it doesn’t help matters that quarterback Tommy DeVito is back under center for Brian Daboll’s team this weekend against a Ravens defense that is desperately looking for a spot to get right and beat up on an inferior opponent. 

While we do lean toward backing Baltimore to cover the full-game spread, the first half is our preferred wager on this contest. The Baltimore offense should come out with its hair on fire against a beleaguered Giants defense that is going to be without Dexter Lawrence for this game. It’s also fair to wonder if the Giants’ players have quit on the season following a pair of close, disheartening losses to the Cowboys and Saints. Look for Lamar Jackson to build on his excellent 56-36-2 career against the spread record in the first half, as John Harbaugh’s team should dominate this game from the opening kick.