NFL Week 11 Touchdown Scorer Best Bets

Week 11 of the NFL season is here and this is when things start to get real. The contenders are separating from the pretenders, fantasy playoffs are on the horizon and betting edges are tightening. On the other side of the coin, this is also the sweet spot of the season in which we know players' roles, defensive weaknesses are fully exposed and sharp bettors can still find soft spots in the touchdown markets.

After diving into the numbers and recent matchups, we’ve pinpointed three touchdown scorer bets that bring together opportunity, usage and value. Let’s get into our favorite touchdown picks for Week 11 after cashing one of three last week when Kyren Williams found the end zone for the Rams at +100 odds.

NFL Week 11 Touchdown Scorer Predictions 

Pick #1: Jaylen Warren (PIT) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-170)

Pick #2: Zach Ertz (WSH) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)

Pick #3: Woody Marks (HOU) First Touchdown Scorer (+450)

Pick #1: Jaylen Warren (PIT) Anytime Touchdown Scorer in Bengals vs Steelers (-170)

Jaylen Warren has quietly become the best player on Pittsburgh’s offense. While Kenneth Gainwell still eats into his workload, Warren’s playmaking and the fact that quarterback Aaron Rodgers trusts him make him one of the most important players on the offense.

This week’s matchup sets up beautifully. The Bengals have been shredded by running backs all year, allowing the most total yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position. Their defensive front has struggled mightily against zone runs and screens as well, which are two areas where Warren thrives.

Expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on Warren to control the tempo and keep its offense balanced. Warren has seen at least 13 carries in four straight games, so the volume is there. While he has only scored three times this season, the matchup gives us confidence to lay the bet even with -170 odds.

Pick #2: Zach Ertz (WSH) Anytime Touchdown Scorer in Commanders vs Dolphins (+190)

Zach Ertz isn’t the most explosive tight end anymore, but he is the safety blanket for Marcus Mariota and the Commanders offense with Jayden Daniels out. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in savvy route running and a nose for soft spots in coverage, and this week’s opponent is tailor-made for him to take advantage.

The Dolphins have been torched by tight ends, giving up the most receptions and the second-most touchdowns to the position this season. Miami’s linebackers and safeties have struggled in coverage all year, especially in the red zone, where Ertz still shines – catching four touchdowns in 10 games this season.

At +190, the value is too good to pass up. With Terry McLaurin still out with a quad injury, expect Mariota to look Ertz’s way on play-action and third downs. Don’t be surprised if he’s the one celebrating in the end zone before halftime in a game that projects to have some points scored with a game total of 47.5.

Pick #3: Woody Marks (HOU) First Touchdown Scorer in Texans vs Titans (+450)

Woody Marks has taken over the backfield from veteran Nick Chubb, as Marsks played 60 snaps last week compared to Chubb’s 10. The rookie brings a burst and toughness that’s helped the Texans’ offense find more balance the past few weeks.

This week, he gets a dream matchup against the Titans, which is a defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Tennessee’s front has been leaky in goal-line situations, often over-pursuing and giving up cutback lanes. Plus, with C.J. Stroud out again for this game, Houston may lean on Marks more near the goal line after he scored last week.

At +450, Marks offers sneaky-good value as a first touchdown scorer. The Texans love to script early drives through the run game, and if they find themselves near the goal line on their opening series, Marks has a great shot to punch it in.