NFL Week 11 Player Prop Picks

Week 10 of the NFL slate is in the books, and it was another chaotic weekend of football that produced plenty of compelling games. The Week 11 card is loaded with compelling games across both conferences, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles, among others.

We posted a 2-1 week in this column a week ago, which brings us to 17-12 on the season. This week, our expert has three more player prop bets picked out for Sunday’s action. As we dive into this Week 11 slate, it’s time to get into our best player prop bets for this week’s NFL games. 

NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets

Pick #1: Lamar Jackson (BAL) under 37.5 rushing yards (-110)

Pick #2: Justin Jefferson (MIN) anytime touchdown scorer (+105)

Pick #3: Jordan Love (GB) over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

PICK #1: Lamar Jackson (BAL) under 37.5 rushing yards (-110)

For our first pick in this week’s column, we're going with Lamar Jackson under his rushing yards prop. This has been a bet that I’ve made in previous weeks since Jackson has returned from injury, and it certainly aligns with the circumstances surrounding Jackson’s status in this game. 

Given the fact that Jackson is playing through a sore knee this week, it’s hard to see the Ravens coaching staff pushing their star quarterback on the ground in what should be a game that Baltimore wins by keeping a very vanilla game plan. Jackson has a combined 50 rushing yards in his two games since returning from injury, so let’s follow that recent trend and look for another slower effort on the ground from the two-time MVP. 

PICK #2: Justin Jefferson (MIN) anytime touchdown scorer (+105)

For our second pick in this column, let’s target Justin Jefferson to find the end zone for the third time this season. The Vikings passing game has been a mess for the majority of the campaign to this point, and much of that has to do with the musical chairs that Kevin O’Connell has had to shuffle at the quarterback position. Last week, Minnesota hit rock bottom in a loss to the Ravens at home and Jefferson finished with just 37 receiving yards on four receptions. 

The narrative around the Vikings is that Jefferson and McCarthy aren’t on the same page and that the passing game is one that can’t be fixed. However, Minnesota gets a very favorable matchup this week against a Bears defense that is one of the worst units in football in terms of allowing passing touchdowns. Jefferson should be primed for a bounce-back effort at home on Sunday, so we’ll take our chances with backing the best receiver in the sport in this one.  

PICK #3: Jordan Love (GB) over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

For our final pick in this week’s column, we will buy the dip on Jordan Love and back the Packers’ quarterback to throw for at least two touchdowns on Sunday. Love has struggled mightily over the last two weeks against Carolina and Philadelphia, but this week presents a much easier matchup against a Giants defense that is 27th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate allowed per SumerSports. The Packers should be a bit healthier at wide receiver this week and the weather conditions on Sunday should be conducive to Green Bay pushing the ball downfield a bit more. With that in mind, this number has real value compared to what it would’ve been a few weeks ago.