NFL Week 10 Sunday picks

The 2024 NFL season is in full swing, and the Week 10 card features a number of highly-anticipated matchups, including a game between likely playoff teams in the Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans and a battle between playoff hopefuls in the New York Jets vs Arizona Cardinals. 

As we dive into the Week 10 matchups, it’s time to get into our predictions and three best bets for this week’s slate of NFL action. 

Predictions

Pick #1: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Under 43.5 (-110)

Pick #2: Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Under 47.5 (-110)

Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110)

Pick #1: Eagles vs Cowboys Under 43.5 (-110)

Until Dak Prescott returns from his hamstring injury, it’s hard to see how this Dallas offense consistently scores against quality competition. Cooper Rush will get the start under center this week against an Eagles defense that has quietly been playing its best football of the season over the past few games. It’s safe to say our expert doesn’t believe in the Cowboys backup quarterback and an already limited group of weapons to put up much of a fight against Philadelphia. 

On the other side of the ball, the most glaring issue for the Cowboys defense this season has been its consistent inability to stop the run. It just so happens that this Eagles offense boasts one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and they should look to keep things on the ground early and often on Sunday. Even at this deflated number, it’s hard not to take the under in this NFC East battle. 

Pick #2: Bills vs Colts Under 47.5 (-110)

While there are avenues for both the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread in this matchup, the Under is our preferred wager in this game. It’s gone a bit under the radar, but the Colts’ defense has been quietly improving in recent weeks compared to where this unit was earlier in the season. In fact, Indianapolis is now up to 14th in opponent EPA per play and 13th in success rate allowed, so this is a team that can at least somewhat slow down Josh Allen and a Bills offense that should be content to run the ball and grind this game out — especially with the injuries sustained at wide receiver with Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper both not expected to play on Sunday.

As for the visitors, Sean McDermott has done another fine job with coaching up this Bills defense. Heading into this week, Buffalo’s defense currently sits at ninth in EPA per pass and 11th in points per quality possession allowed. Given that Joe Flacco and this Colts offense just registered a paltry 36% success rate against Minnesota a week ago, it’s hard to see that drastically changing against a Buffalo defense loves to take away the explosive play and forces you to move the ball methodically down the field. With all factors in mind, the Under looks to be the right side to be on.

Pick #3: 49ers -6 over Buccaneers (-110)

The 49ers have dealt with a myriad of injuries this season, as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have all missed multiple games to this point. However, McCaffrey is expected to play on Sunday, and the Niners have had a bye week to get healthy and prepared for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s group is 4-1 over their last five games following a bye, and they’ll also have the benefit of facing a Tampa Bay team that enters this contest following a tough overtime defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs.

This Buccaneers team has its own injury crisis, as wide receiver Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ankle injury a couple of weeks ago and Mike Evans is still nursing a hamstring injury. Evans is likely going to miss Sunday’s game, and fellow wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are also unlikely to play. With quarterback Baker Mayfield missing his top weapons and the Buccaneers already on a short week, it’s hard to see how Tampa Bay keeps this one close. This game is a good spot to back the 49ers buzzsaw off the bye week, so let’s lay the points in Tampa Bay.