NFL Christmas Day 2025 Picks and Best Bets for Week 17

Following an exciting slate of football in Week 16, the 2025 NFL season continues with a Week 17 card that features several highly anticipated matchups, including a trio of games to enjoy on Christmas Day. A showdown in the NFC East kicks things off with the Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders, before the Minnesota Vikings play host to the Detroit Lions. The day wraps up with the Denver Broncos heading to Kansas City for a date with the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

Let’s break down our NFL Christmas Day predictions and three best bets for this loaded slate on Thursday. 

NFL Christmas Day Predictions

• PICK #1: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-110) vs Washington Commanders (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #2: Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #3: Denver Broncos -12.5 (-115) vs Kansas City Chiefs (-115) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Cowboys -6.5 (-110) vs Commanders Click Here to Bet

Each of these teams has struggled for consistency on a week-to-week basis, as the Dallas defense has really hurt them all season long, while the Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball due to injuries and poor play. However, even though it's hard to trust the Cowboys on the road, we're going to lay the points with Dallas in this divisional matchup. 

Washington will likely have to start third-string quarterback Josh Johnson in this one, given the fact that backup quarterback Marcus Mariota is dealing with a couple of injuries at the moment. That bodes well for a Dallas defense that needs to get back on track. On the other side, the Cowboys offense is one of the better units in the NFC, and Dallas should see plenty of success against this porous Washington pass defense. 

PICK #2: Lions vs Vikings Under 44.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

This is a difficult game to handicap, given the injuries and lack of motivation for both sides, and it doesn’t help matters that Detroit is in a very poor situational spot. With that in mind, the Under is the only way we can look in this game, especially now that Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to miss this contest. 

Detroit shouldn’t need to score much to outpace a Minnesota offense led by Max Brosmer — who was dreadful against the Seahawks a few weeks ago — and the Lions should look to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives in a matchup that shouldn’t produce many explosive plays. 

PICK #3: Broncos -12.5 (-115) vs Chiefs Click Here to Bet

To close out the Christmas Day slate, we’ll lay the points with the Broncos over the Chiefs in this AFC West clash. This has to be one of the more surprising point spreads on the board, especially compared to where both teams were projected to be in the preseason. However, this number is more than justified, and we're backing Denver in a spot where the Broncos should win by a significant margin. After all, Sean Payton’s team still needs to win its final two games to lock up the top seed in the AFC, and this is also a spot where the Broncos can run the score up a bit on a division rival that has tormented them in years past. 

As for Kansas City, not only is Patrick Mahomes done for the year with a torn ACL, but backup quarterback Gardner Minshew also exited last week’s contest with a season-ending ACL injury of his own. It’s hard to imagine Kansas City putting up many points this week against a ferocious Broncos defense, especially with third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun leading the offense. Denver should win this one by at least 13 points.