NCAA Tournament Preview - Our Top 10 teams to watch and bet on

It’s Feb. 23 which means March Madness is right around the corner. Let’s talk about which 10 teams have the best chance of winning the big dance this year. Selection Sunday is on March 12, the first round starts on Thursday, March 16 and the NCAA Championship Game takes place on Monday, April 3. There’s not a clear-cut favorite this year and it should make for a fun and topsy-turvy tournament. 

Odds/Rankings currently at FanDuel

1. Houston +650

2. Kansas +800

3. Alabama +900

4. Purdue +1000

5. Arizona +1400

6. UCLA +1400

7. Baylor +1900

8. Texas +2300

9. Connecticut +2300

10. Tennessee +2500

Others

Gonzaga +3000

Marquette +3000

Creighton +3000

TCU +3000

Virginia +3200

Indiana +3500  

Our Top 10

10. Indiana +3500

The No. 17 Hoosiers are 19-8 and led by senior Trayce Jackson-Davis who has gone from a possible first-round pick to a potential lottery pick by averaging 20.5 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.9 blocks for the 19-9 Hoosiers. Indiana rattled off eight straight wins to start the season and beat North Carolina, who was the preseason No. 1, on Nov. 30. Indiana has just two losses at home this season (Arizona & Northwestern) and has only lost three games since Jan. 12 - @Maryland, @Northwestern and @Michigan State. And while they won’t get to play at home in the tournament, they also won’t have to go on the road. The inconsistent Hoosiers beat No. 1 Purdue on Feb. 4 and have proven that anything is possible with Jackson-Davis leading the way. They’ve also won five NCAA Championships over the years, including in 1976 when they went undefeated with current coach Mike Woodson leading the way. How the Hoosiers fare in their final three games (@ Purdue, vs. Iowa and vs. Michigan) will be very telling, and we’ll also be keeping a close eye on how they perform in the Big 10 tournament. 

9. Marquette +3000

The No. 10 Golden Eagles are 22-6 and on the verge of winning their first Big East title in over a decade after taking down Creighton on Feb. 21. They’ve lost just two games since Dec. 21 and both of those were against ranked teams on the road (Xavier & UConn). Marquette fans are all fired up about coach Shaka Smart and his high-powered offense, led by sophomore guard Kam Jones and his 15 points per game. Smart famously led VCU to the Final Four in 2011 and will be looking to capture the hearts of hoops fans again with one of the best offenses in the NCAA this season. Marquette averages 80.5 points per game, 13th best in the country. 

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8. Baylor +1900

The 20-8, No. 9 Bears are led by freshman guard Keyonte George and his 16.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 steals. G Adam Flagler scores 15.6 ppg for Baylor and L.J. Cryer scores 14.9 per game. Baylor is reeling right now after losing at No. 5 Kansas on Feb. 18 and No. 14 @Kansas State on Feb. 21. But those are two tough places to win and they had won 10 of their 11 previous games, including vs. Kansas, @Texas and @TCU. We’ll have to see what happens when they play No. 8 Texas on Feb. 25 and No. 23 Iowa State on March 4, but Scott Drew’s Bears are talented enough to win it all this year if they catch some breaks.  

7. Texas +2300

The 22-6 Longhorns have lost three of their last eight games, all of which were on the road and their current No. 8 ranking is probably due to drop a bit on Sunday night. A Feb. 13 loss at unranked Texas Tech hurt, but they also fell at No. 9 Kansas and at No. 4 Tennessee during that eight-game span, which are tough places to win. Senior guard Marcus Carr leads the way with 17 points and 4.1 assists per game and only two other Texas players score in double digits (G Sir’Jabari Rice 12.1, F Timmy Allen 10.8). It may be tough for interim coach Rodney Terry’s squad to win it all with such an unbalanced offense but it’s worked so far, as Texas has a chance to win their first Big 12 Championship since 2008. But their season is far from over with games left at No. 9 Baylor, at No. 24 TCU and a home finale against No. 3 Kansas. If they happen to win all three  of those games their Vegas odds are likely to change dramatically. 

6. Purdue +1000

The No. 5, 24-4 Boilermakers were No. 1 for a month earlier in the season and won their first 13 games, as well as 22 of their first 23 before losing their second game of the season at Indiana on Feb. 4. But that loss led to them losing three of four games after falling at Northwestern and Maryland before righting the ship with a win over Ohio State on Feb. 19 in blowout fashion. Matt Painter’s squad still has to play No. 17 Indiana again, then travel to Wisconsin and finish the season at home against the Illini. Purdue is led by big man Zach Edey and his 22.1 points, 12.7 rebounds and 2.4 blocks and the 7’4” junior is the most dominant big man in today’s game. But things get shaky after Edey with guards Fletcher Loyer (11.8 ppg) and Braden Smith (10 ppg) rounding out the double-digit scoring. Edey is dominant and the key to everything Purdue does but it will be interesting to see what they can do if they run up against a team like Arizona that also features two of the best bigs in the country. Watching Purdue in the Big 10 tournament should be fun and how they play in that should dictate how they might do in the NCAA tourney. 

5. Alabama +900

The 24-4, No. 2 Tide is currently mired in controversy due to the murder of Jamea Harris. Darius Miles has been kicked off the team as he awaits trial and freshman Brandon Miller is under fire after reports surfaced that he actually brought Miles the gun used in the shooting (it was registered to Miles). Coach Nate Oats, who recently signed a $30 million extension, is also under some fire for some press conference remarks he made on Feb. 21 when he appeared to not take the situation as seriously as he should have. The fact Miller is being allowed to play is a controversial decision but it didn’t faze him on Feb. 22 when he went off for a career-high 41 points in a two-point win over South Carolina. Bama was already led by Miller’s 18.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game before Wednesday’s 41-point explosion, and guard Mark Sears scores 13.6 points per game for the Tide. Those are the only double-digit scorers for Oats’ squad, which is a concern. And you have to wonder if the never-ending scrutiny on Miller catches up to him before the tournament gets here. Bama still has to play Arkansas and Auburn at home before finishing up the regular season on the road at No. 25 Texas A&M. If Miller continues to play and put up big numbers, the sky’s the limit for Alabama. But the fallout from the tragic murder will continue to be an issue until their season is officially over. 

4. UCLA +1400

The 23-4 Bruins are currently ranked No. 4, are 15-0 at home and haven’t lost since they dropped back-to-back games in late January at No. 11 Arizona and at USC. They haven’t beaten any ranked teams lately but do have a regular season finale against No. 7 Arizona that will provide a test on March 4. Senior guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. leads a balanced Bruins attack with 16.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while G Jaylen Clark (13.3 points), G Tiger Campbell (12.2 points), G Amari Bailey (10.3 points) and G David Singleton (9.8 points) round out the offense for UCLA. Mick Cronin’s squad has earned a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament which they should be favored to win. No one is going to want to play the Bruins in the NCAA tournament. 

3. Houston +650

The Cougars are ranked No. 1 and have a 25-2 record this season, only losing at home to Alabama on Dec. 10 and at home against Temple on Jan. 22. They’ve rattled off eight straight wins and have it pretty easy the rest of the way with games at East Carolina and Memphis, and a home date against Wichita State. The biggest question about the Cougars is just how good are they? They’ve only played two ranked teams this season and lost one of those (Bama) while beating the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers back on Dec. 17. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team has already clinched at least a share of the American Athletic Conference regular-season championship, which they’ve won in four of their last five seasons. Senior guard Marcus Sasser leads the team at 16.7 points per game, F Jarace Walker scores 11.3 points with 6.4 rebounds, and F J’Wan Roberts averages 10.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. We worry about Houston’s strength of schedule and wonder how they’ll perform when they have to face some of the better teams in the NCAA tournament.  

2. Kansas +800

Bill Self’s No. 3 Jayhawks are 22-5 on the season and have wins over No. 7 Duke, No. 14 Indiana, No. 14 Iowa State, No. 7 Kansas State, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 Baylor and No. 24 TCU. However, they’ve also lost to No. 22 Tennessee (at home) and lost three straight games to ranked teams from Jan. 17 to 23 (@ No. 13 Kansas State, @ No. 14 TCU and @ No. 17 Baylor), and most recently lost at No. 13 Iowa State on Feb. 4. There’s no doubt they’ve played a tough schedule and it’s not over yet, with home games left against West Virginia and Texas Tech, as well as a road finale at No. 8 Texas on March 4. Junior forward Jalen Wilson leads the way with 19.9 points and 8.5 rebounds, guards Gradey Dick (14.9 ppg) and Kevin McCullar (10.9 ppg) score in double figures, and forward K.J. Adams clocks in with 10.6 ppg for Kansas. They’ve proven that they can beat anyone and are also vulnerable to getting beaten by quality teams, making their chances of cruising all the way through the tournament a little iffy.   

1. Arizona +1400

The 24-4 Wildcats have just one loss at home this season and took road hits from Utah, Oregon and Stanford. We’re not sure how they let 13-15 Washington State ruin their perfect record at home but it is a little concerning that it happened, even if it was in early January. Lithuanian junior forward Azuolas Tubelis averages 19.6 points and 9.1 rebounds for Arizona and is one of five players who score in double digits for them. C Oumar Ballo averages 14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, giving Arizona one of the better big-man tandems in all of college hoops and they can battle with anyone. Guards Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa and Pelle Larsson all average more than 10 points for Tommy Lloyd’s No. 8 squad as they look forward to the Pac-12 tournament. But they’ll first have to hold off Arizona State on Feb. 25 before playing at USC on March 2 and finishing up the regular season on the road at No. 4 UCLA. That should be an epic battle. Their big-man duo surrounded by strong guard play is going to make them a tough out in the tournament and that’s why we like them to win it all. 

Sleeper Pick: Indiana +3500