NBA Tuesday picks - November 26

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing, and Tuesday marks the continuation of the NBA Cup group stage, as the league’s best continue to battle to capture the 2024-25 in-season tournament championship. Tuesday’s card features a number of compelling matchups, including the Milwaukee Bucks facing off against the Miami Heat, the Rockets are in Minnesota for a date with the Timberwolves and the Lakers are in Phoenix for a matchup with the Suns, among others. As we dive into Tuesday’s slate of games in the association, it’s time to get into our predictions and three best bets for this night of NBA Cup action. 

Predictions

Pick #1: Miami Heat -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (-110)

Pick #2: Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Under 220.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 over Phoenix Suns (-110)

PICK #1: Heat -1.5 over Bucks (-110)

Milwaukee has been a rollercoaster through its first 17 games this season. The Bucks got off to a 2-8 start before stringing together wins in six of their last seven games to climb back into the top half of the Eastern Conference standings. And even though Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing like an MVP candidate and Damian Lillard has certainly been better than he was a season ago, this Bucks team is still atrocious defensively and bad situationally with Doc Rivers as the head coach. That doesn’t bode well against a Miami Heat team that has won three of their last four games and historically performs well against the Bucks.

Heading into this game, Miami ranks around the middle of the pack in offensive rating, but the Heat should be able to attack the paint and kick out passes to open shooters on the perimeter against this porous Bucks defense. On the other side, the Heat are still a top-10 unit on defense, which should be no surprise given what head coach Erik Spoelstra preaches. This should be a close game, but we’ll give Miami the edge at home on Tuesday. 

PICK #2: Rockets vs Timberwolves Under 220.5 (-110)

While the season is still young, it looks like the Houston Rockets are poised to take a massive step forward and be a playoff team in what is a loaded Western Conference this season. The Rockets are 12-6 on the season and have won seven of their last 10 games as part of a torrid stretch of basketball against pretty decent opposition. Houston is second in defensive rating and that success should carry over into Tuesday’s matchup against a Minnesota team that has been somewhat of a mixed bag on offense through its first 16 games. 

While the Timberwolves’ defense has taken a step back compared to its league-best marks last season, some of that can be attributed to the fact that Minnesota has had to incorporate a myriad of new pieces over the first month of the season. The Timberwolves should put forth their best effort on the defensive side of the ball in what is a must-win game if they want to advance out of the NBA Cup group stage. It wouldn’t be that shocking if both of these teams didn’t reach 110 points on Tuesday, so let’s take the under.  

PICK #3: Lakers -1.5 over Suns (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a pleasant surprise to this point in the season, as new head coach JJ Reddick has clearly infused the team with a bit more confidence and composure on both sides of the ball. The duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis is still one of the best in basketball and the rest of the Lakers rotation is falling into place as well, including key contributions from rookie Dalton Knecht on offense. 

As for Phoenix, the 2024-25 campaign couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, as the Suns stormed out to an 8-1 record and were sitting at the top of the Western Conference. However, part of why the Suns had been so excellent at the start of the season has been due to the MVP-caliber season they were getting from Kevin Durant, who was averaging nearly 28 points and seven rebounds per game on over 55 percent shooting from the field. 

Unfortunately, Durant went down with a calf strain on November 8, and he’s still going to be out for this matchup. With that in mind, it’s hard to see the Suns being able to keep up with the Lakers, especially since Durant was playing excellent defense as well. Given Phoenix’s lack of options on offense, Devin Booker is going to be asked to do a lot in this game, and he could struggle a bit coming down the stretch.