NBA Tuesday picks - November 12

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing, and Tuesday marks the start of the NBA Cup, as the league’s best will embark on a one-month journey to capture this in-season tournament championship in its second season. Tuesday’s card features a number of compelling matchups, including the Philadelphia 76ers facing off against the New York Knicks, the Mavericks are in San Francisco for a date with the Warriors and the Raptors are in Milwaukee for a matchup with the Bucks, among others.  

As we dive into Tuesday’s slate of games in the association, it’s time to get into our predictions and three best bets for this first night of NBA Cup action. 

Predictions

Pick #1: New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Over 216 (-110)

Pick #2: Golden State Warriors -1.5 over Dallas Mavericks (-110)

Pick #3: Toronto Raptors +9 over Milwaukee Bucks (-110)

PICK #1: Knicks vs 76ers Over 216 (-110)

Both of these teams were expected to be among the league’s best heading into this season, but neither side is off to a great start by any means. The Knicks have been incorporating some new faces into their team, so while it’s understandable that they haven’t been perfect, the results have still been pretty concerning for what has been an inconsistent group thus far. On the other side, the Sixers currently sit at 2-7 and struggled mightily without Joel Embiid in the fold. However, Embiid is set to make his return on Tuesday, which raises the ceiling considerably for Philadelphia, particularly on the offensive end. 

The Knicks have had a lot of trouble protecting the paint this season, as Karl-Anthony Towns and company are 29th in the league in defending at the rim. That spells trouble against a Sixers team that should look to play through Embiid when he’s on the floor on offense, which creates scoring opportunities for the likes of Paul George, Jared McCain and others on the perimeter. On the other side, the Sixers' defense is just 20th in defensive rating, and they’ll be going up against a Knicks team that is second in offensive rating. This one should have plenty of points, so let’s take the over in Philadelphia.

PICK #2: Warriors -2 over Mavericks (-110)

Dallas is another team that is incorporating plenty of new pieces into its roster, so it was reasonable to expect a fairly slow start this season from Luka Doncic and company. Dallas’ offense and defense have been above average, but the Mavericks have struggled against playoff-caliber teams with a lot of continuity (Pacers, Nuggets, Rockets, Suns). The problem for the Mavericks is that they’ll now have to face a Golden State Warriors team that has a ton of continuity and is firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. 

Steph Curry and company are fourth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating, as Golden State is playing like a complete and total team unit on both ends. Steve Kerr’s strategy of playing 12 players a night seems to be working as well, as the Warriors have one of the most productive bench units in the league to this point. Look for Golden State to improve to 9-2 on the season in front of what should be a great crowd at the Chase Center on Tuesday.

PICK #3: Raptors +9 over Bucks (-110)

It’s going to be hard for this Bucks team to win games by margin this season. In fact, Milwaukee has been such a disaster through its first 10 games that it’s going to be hard for this team to win many games at all at the moment. The Bucks are just 2-8 on the season and have yet to put forth a really strong performance on either end of the floor. Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing like an MVP and Damian Lillard has been a bit better than he was a season ago, but this Bucks team is still atrocious defensively and bad situationally. That doesn’t bode well against a scrappy Toronto Raptors team that is playing pretty decent basketball, even without Scottie Barnes in the lineup.

Heading into this game, the Raptors rank 14th in offensive rating, which is actually four spots ahead of the Bucks in this statistic. Toronto emphasizes attacking the paint, which should lead to kick-out passes to open shooters on the perimeter against this porous Bucks defense that is 22nd in defensive rating. Even if Milwaukee wins this game, it’s hard to see the Bucks prevailing by double digits.