NBA Title odds, breakdown and picks
The NBA season is winding down and the Knicks are hot, the Nets are still hanging around, the Suns are coming on, the Bucks and Celtics are battling, the Nuggets are pulling away and the Grizzlies are mired in the Ja Morant controversy at the wrong time of the year. Here are the favorites and our guesses as to where the smart money should be once the playoffs start.
The Favorites
Milwaukee Bucks +320
The Bucks and Celtics are the two clear Vegas favorites right now and it’s not surprising that the Top 6 favorites to win it all have players named Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid on their rosters.
The Bucks have a 2.0 game lead on the Celtics in the East, won their first nine games of the season, went on a 16-game winning streak from late-January to March 1 and have won 17 of their last 18 games, with their only loss coming at home to the Sixers by a score of 133-130 on March 4.
The Bucks might be the league’s deepest team and have the luxury of bringing guys like Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder off the bench. The chemistry between point guard Jrue Holiday and Giannis is something to behold and Brook Lopez does a nice job of holding things down in the middle until Portis relieves him each night. And Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen provide outside shooting and defense as role players in the starting unit. If Middleton can get back and return to form, the Bucks are going to be very hard to stop in the playoffs and no one is going to want to face them in a seven-game series. It remains to be seen who would have homecourt in the Finals between the Bucks and Nuggets, which will obviously be a key factor.
Boston Celtics +320
The Celtics have lost three straight after falling at Cleveland on Monday night after home losses to the Nets and Knicks on Friday and Sunday. They also lost to the Knicks on Feb. 27 and the Bucks on Feb. 14. That means the Celtics are just 4-5 over their last nine games. Jayson Tatum sat out on Monday with a knee contusion after playing 49 minutes on Sunday night, so we’re guessing this was just a rest day for their star.
The Celtics have a solid core of Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Robert Williams, as well as a deep foundation that includes Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon and Grant Williams. Do they have an answer for Giannis and Joel Embiid? They’re 3-0 against the Sixers this season and 1-1 against the Bucks, so it looks like they do. But in a seven-game series with the Bucks likely holding home-court advantage, the Celtics will have their work cut out for them.
Phoenix Suns +460
The resurrected Suns have won three straight games and six of their last eight games and now boast a stellar lineup that includes Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton, but things get shaky from there. Josh Okogie has been starting, T.J. Warren has been invisible and unlike the Bucks and Celtics, do not have a deep team after trading key pieces like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson in order to get Durant.
But the Suns will put their starting five up against any team in the league and feel good about it but we’re just not sure they’re deep enough to stay healthy and win the whole thing. If the Suns were to make it to the Finals, they’ll be tired when they get there. But they have a Big 4 in the starting lineup and no one is going to want to face them in the postseason.
Denver Nuggets +700
The Nuggets are 41-9 over their last 50 games, Nikola Jokic is a walking triple-double, the most effective player in the NBA and the favorite to win the MVP Award for the third straight season. They have one loss each to Milwaukee, Boston and Philly with most of their other losses this season coming to teams who don’t offer much of a threat in the playoffs.
The starting lineup of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Jokic is formidable and the experience they have on the bench in the form of Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, Thomas Bryant, Reggie Jackson and DeAndre Jordan will come in handy in the playoffs.
They’ve opened up a whopping 7.0 game lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies who are likely to keep falling for as long as Ja Morant is out after being seen with a gun on videotape last weekend. And the Kings stand between the Suns and the Nuggets, and no one is going to catch the Nuggets with just 17 games left to play. Expect the Nuggets to get Jokic, Murray and MPJ plenty of rest down the stretch as they prepare for a long playoff run. And with those odds set at a tasty +700, that’s probably where our $100 is going if we’re placing a bet on the NBA Champion today. Especially if they end up with home court throughout the playoffs and in the Finals.
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The Sleepers
Golden State Warriors +1500
Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole held down the fort while Stephen Curry was out for 11 games with a lower-leg injury, helping the Warriors hang onto the No. 5 seed. They’re 12 games back of the No. 1 Nuggets, but just 2.0 games behind the Suns and a ½ game ahead of the No. 6 Timberwolves.
A starting five of Curry, Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney with Poole and Jonathan Kuminga is solid, but we just don’t know if they can get it done against a team like Denver or Milwaukee in a seven-game series. Curry and Klay are going to have to stay healthy and make a lot of noise in the playoffs if the Warriors are going to make a serious run. But they’ve won five of their last six games and can play with anyone as long as Curry is healthy. However, their 7-24 road record is not a good look for the Dubs at this stage of the season.
Philadelphia 76ers +1600
The Sixers are probably going to finish as the No. 3 seed in the East and are 2.0 games behind the No. 2 Celtics, 4.0 games behind the No. Bucks and 2.5 games ahead of the No. 4 Cavaliers. Philly is 7-3 over their last 10 games with losses to Boston, Miami and Dallas and wins over a few shaky teams and the Bucks in Milwaukee on March 4.
A starting lineup of James Harden, De’Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker, Tobias Harris and Embiid is pretty solid but their bench is lacking, outside of Tyrese Maxey. Tucker and Harris are injured right now but should be fine for the postseason and Harris looks like he might be a weak link in the lineup. Any time Embiid and Harden take the court the Sixers can win, but getting a seven-game series over the Bucks and Celtics will not be easy. Especially given their lack of depth.
Memphis Grizzlies +1900
The Morant gun controversy is going to provide a huge distraction for No. 2 Memphis, likely for the rest of the season, and their 12-20 road record is the worst among any contenders outside of the Warriors (7-24). The Grizzlies are 7.0 games behind Denver and aren’t going to catch them, and will simply try to hold off the No. 3 Kings (½ game back) and the No. 4 Suns (3.0 games behind Memphis).
Backup point guard Tyus Jones might be a saving grace for Memphis depending on what becomes of Morant and a Colorado police investigation, but they lost to the Clippers when he started on Sunday and had 25 points, 12 assists, five steals and five 3-pointers on 9-of-14 shooting in a loss to the Clippers. He’s more reliable in fantasy than reality when Ja is out.
A starting lineup of Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. is very solid, but they’re clearly missing big man Steven Adams, who has missed 18 straight games with a knee injury. Xavier Tillman and Santi Aldama aren’t the answers at center for the Grizzlies and they’ll need Adams back in form before the playoffs start.
The bench brigade of Jones, Aldama, Tillman, Jonathan Konchar and Luke Kennard is decent, but not intimidating.
The Grizzlies are a very good team and can beat anyone on any given night, but the road record is dismal and their 1-2 record against Denver isn’t a great sign. Add in the fact that the Suns, Kings, Warriors and Clippers are all making noise, along with the Morant situation, and it’s hard to see them winning it all.
Los Angeles Clippers +1900
The Clippers are 0-4 against the Nuggets this season and have lost five of their last six games, finally breaking a five-game losing streak since the All-Star break by beating the Morant-less Grizzlies on Sunday. The Clippers are just 24-18 over their last 42 games despite getting Kawhi Leonard and Paul George mostly healthy over the last month or so.
A starting lineup of Russell Westbrook, George, Leonard, Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac has the potential to win games and even a playoff series or two, but that 0-4 record against the Nuggets this season is sticking out like a sore thumb. As is their marginal play over their last 42 games.
Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Terance Mann offer some stability off the bench for the Clippers, but unless Leonard and George go on a historic postseason tear, it’s hard to see them coming out of the West.
The Super Sleepers
Dallas Mavericks +2000
Sure, Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic have the potential to be fun but the Mavs play no defense and are just 4-6 since acquiring Irving. The West has gotten better and teams have to play solid defense to win in the playoffs. Maybe the Mavs plan on outsourcing every team they play from here on in, but they’re still at least another piece or two away from having a realistic shot at getting a ring.
Cleveland Cavaliers +3200
The Cavaliers are 3-4 over their last seven games despite a big win over the Celtics on Monday and they’re failing to intimidate teams despite some great play by Donovan Mitchell. A starting five of Darius Garland, Mitchell, Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is fun, but the bench is a mess with guys like Caris LeVert, Ricky Rubio, Cedi Osman and Dean Wade waiting in the wings. The Cavs are capable of beating anyone if clicking on all cylinders but they just don’t have the depth to compete with the stronger teams in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers +5500
Sure, a lineup of Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt and Anthony Davis has some big names, but James and Davis have both proven to be unreliable this season. Add into it the fact that we still don’t know when LeBron is coming back and the Lakers currently aren’t even in a play-in situation, and the playoffs are looking bleak. Granted, they’re right on the precipice of moving from the No. 11 seed to the No. 9 seed in the West, they’re still likely going to have to win a play-in game or two to get into the real postseason. And without a deep bench (Rui Hachimura, Troy Brown, Austin Reaves) they’re going to have to rely on LeBron, Davis and Schroder to carry the entire load. And we’re not sure they’re bodies are up for the challenge. If they Lakers do get through the play-in stage and get into a seven-game series with another team, anything is possible. But there’s a reason they’re a +5500 long shot to do it.
The Long Shots
New Orleans Pelicans +6000
Maybe Zion Williamson (hamstring) is going to come back and save the day for the Pelicans but he hasn’t played since Jan. 2 and suffered a setback on Feb. 12. They’ve lost seven of their last nine games and are down there with the Lakers as the No. 12 seed in the West currently. They could easily sneak into the playoffs by the end of the season but Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas and company just don’t have enough horsepower to get it done this year, unless Zion comes back and takes over the league. Which is not a likely scenario.
New York Knicks +6500
The Knicks are in the midst of a nine-game winning streak and have won 11 of their last 12 games. Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Brunson (when healthy), RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and Josh Hart have all been instrumental during the run and they’ve been a blast to watch over the last month. If we were going to take a flier on an NBA longshot, we’d go with the streaking Knicks as of today.
Miami Heat +6500
The Heat are 35-31 and the No. 7 seed in the East, meaning they’re currently in a play-in scenario, and they still have to hold off the Hawks and Raptors, who are lingering around. The Heat are just 4-6 over their last 10 games and while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are a nice duo, the Heat just don’t appear to have the horses to compete with the good teams in the East. Especially with 36-year-old Kyle Lowry nowhere to be found and backup Gabe Vincent struggling for consistency.
The Hail Marys
Sacramento Kings +10000
The poor Kings just get no respect despite being the No. 3 seed in the West right now. They’re 7-3 over their last 10 games, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are having great seasons and Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray and Trey Lyles are all playing well. If you have a spare $100 laying around and want to throw it at the Kings for a chance to win a ridiculous $10,000 go for it. But getting out of the West against teams like Denver and the Suns will be next to impossible and you should treat a bet like that as if you’re playing the lottery.
Brooklyn Nets +16000
The Nets are still the No. 6 seed in the East despite winning just four of their last 10 games. Mikal Bridges is playing like a superstar, Spencer Dinwiddie and Nic Claxton are solid, and Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Thomas and Joe Harris are all decent players. But the Nets should get rolled by any of the better teams in the East and we’re not messing with them.
The Picks
Pick: East Finals - Bucks
Pick: West Finals - Nuggets
Pick: NBA Champion - Bucks
