NBA Opening Night picks - October 22

After a long and eventful offseason that kept basketball fans on their toes, the 2024-25 NBA season is finally here. This season tips off on Tuesday, and there are a couple of intriguing matchups for fans to enjoy. The Boston Celtics will host the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference, while the Los Angeles Lakers will host the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves in a Western Conference matchup that features a litany of new faces and new pieces on each team.

Let’s get into our predictions and best bets for the first night of NBA action.

NBA Opening Night Predictions

Pick #1: Boston Celtics -5 over New York Knicks (-110)

Pick #2: Los Angeles Lakers ML (+110) over Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick #3: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers Under 225 (-110)

PICK #1: Boston Celtics -5 over New York Knicks (-110)

The Knicks going after Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns sends a clear message that New York is building a team that can compete with the Celtics. With Bridges patrolling the wings on defense and Towns providing much-needed versatility at the center position, it’s clear that the Knicks have made huge strides, and it should show. With that said, the Boston Celtics are once again the clear-cut favorite to win it all, and for good reason. 

The defending champions retained their core this offseason, even though Kristaps Porzingis is expected to miss some time due to an injury suffered during the NBA Finals. Even without Porzingis in the middle, Boston still went 10-2 in the postseason, so they shouldn’t experience a massive fall-off in his absence. Jayson Tatum didn’t play much during the Olympics, and his teammate, Jaylen Brown, didn’t even get an invite for the tournament in Paris; there is no doubt that both players will use that experience as motivation heading into this season. 

At the end of the day, Boston was 37-4 at home last year, plus the point differential in the four wins over the Knicks was a whopping 11 points per game. Back Boston to cover this two-possession spread.

PICK #2: Los Angeles Lakers ML (+110) over Minnesota Timberwolves

Los Angeles is essentially bringing back the same team around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and even though head coach J.J. Reddick should certainly go through some growing pains, he does have the advantage of coaching a team with a ton of continuity on Tuesday. 

Thanks to a blockbuster trade a few weeks before the season, Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch could struggle with implementing Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo into the new rotation for the first time this season. On the other side, the Lakers have an established group that should play most of the game. 

Los Angeles should see success on offense here, as James, Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell should all be able to generate quality looks by attacking Minnesota’s drop coverage. Conversely, Anthony Edwards will need to adapt to life with new teammates and get used to their strengths and weaknesses in this season-opener. We can expect this game to be extremely close down the stretch, so, it’s hard not to back James and the Lakers as home underdogs in that case.

PICK #3: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers - Under 225 (-110)

Regardless of what team wins this game, there are plenty of paths for this game to go under the total.

Minnesota was 17th in offensive rating a season ago, while the Lakers checked in at 15th, which is low considering this team's top-end talent. Furthermore, neither team did much on the offensive glass, as Minnesota was 21st in offensive rebounding percentage, while Los Angeles was nearly dead last in that same metric. Extra possessions likely won’t be created, and both teams should play at a pretty slow tempo again this season, especially given that there should be some clunkiness with Minnesota incorporating two new players into the rotation who demand heavy minutes.

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota was top of the league in defensive rating a season ago. Look for that defense to get off to a fast start, especially with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint and the likes of Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the perimeter.