NBA First Round Series Winner Predictions
NBA First Round Series Winner Predictions
The 2026 NBA Playoffs have arrived. While the basketball world is fixated on a potential Western Conference Finals matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, before we can get to any of that, the real betting value lies in the opening-round matchups.
The series spread market offers a more nuanced way to play these matchups than a simple outright pick, and the exact series score market is a bit too precise for my taste. Here are three picks for the first round of the NBA postseason.
NBA Playoffs First-Round Series Predictions
Pick #1: Denver Nuggets -1.5 games over Minnesota Timberwolves (-150)
Pick #2: Atlanta Hawks +1.5 games over New York Knicks (+105)
Pick #3: Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 games over Toronto Raptors (-105)
Pick #1: Nuggets -1.5 games over Timberwolves (-150)
There was a time when the Minnesota Timberwolves were considered the "Nuggets’ Kryptonite," leveraging their two-big defense to frustrate Nikola Jokic. That era appears to be over. Denver enters the postseason on a scorching 12-game winning streak, looking every bit like the juggernaut that captured the 2023 title.
The biggest factor here is health and adjustment. The Nuggets won three of four meetings this season, with their only loss occurring while Aaron Gordon was sidelined. With a healthy Gordon acting as the defensive glue, the Timberwolves' multi-big strategy has lost its teeth. Nikola Jokic essentially broke the Minnesota defense this year, averaging a staggering 36 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists on 65% shooting against them.
Expect a short series. Beyond the X’s and O’s, there is a palpable sense of tension in Minneapolis. If the Wolves suffer another early exit, the drama surrounding Anthony Edwards’ future will reach a fever pitch. Minnesota has been close for years, but failing to get over the hump against Denver could trigger a massive shake-up.
Pick #2: Hawks +1.5 games over Knicks (+105)
The New York Knicks are the higher seed and possess the deeper frontcourt, but the Atlanta Hawks are the most dangerous low seed in the bracket. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has boasted the NBA’s fourth-best net rating (9.7) and a defense that ranks second only to the Thunder.
The Hawks nearly stole a preview of this matchup last week, falling 108-105 only because CJ McCollum’s half-court heave was a split-second late. That game proved that Atlanta’s perimeter length, specifically Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, is uniquely equipped to harass Jalen Brunson.
The Knicks’ defense has struggled to defend the perimeter lately, while the Hawks have been shooting a blistering 37.4% from deep over the last two months. Even if New York’s depth eventually wins out, the Hawks are playing too well to go down easily. Taking the +1.5 spread is a play on this series going at least six or seven games.
Pick #3: Cavaliers -2.5 games over Raptors (-105)
The Raptors sweeping the season series 3-0 against Cleveland is a bit of a mirage. All three of those Toronto wins occurred before Thanksgiving, which was long before the Cavaliers acquired James Harden and while the roster was decimated by injuries.
The version of the Cavaliers entering the playoffs is a completely different animal. With Harden orchestrating the offense, Cleveland’s shooting efficiency has stabilized. The Cavaliers also boast a lot more playoff experience and still carry the disappointment of last year’s early exit when they were the top seed. These guys are hungry, and having a veteran like Harden to pair with Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt means the Cavs flaunt two of the best to never lead a run to the NBA Finals.
The Raptors might be motivated, but they aren’t ready for this stage with this draw. The Raptors rank 26th in made three-pointers, meaning they lack the firepower to keep pace once Cleveland’s offense starts clicking. The Cavs are the superior team in every metric that matters. Expect them to handle business quickly, likely winning in five games or fewer.
