NBA Finals Game 4 Picks - June 14 2024

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by The OddsCrowd Analysts

The Dallas Mavericks face a daunting task in the 2024 NBA Finals, trailing the Boston Celtics 3-0. No team has ever come back from such a deficit in NBA playoff history. Despite 62 combined points from Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic and no Kristaps Porzingis in Game 3, the Celtics' cohesive play and victory in Dallas suggest a series win is imminent. Here's our analysis and top picks for Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks. Tipoff is at 8:30 PM ET on ABC.

NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions

● Boston Celtics Money Line over Dallas Mavericks (-104)

● Under 211.5 Total Points (-110)

● Jayson Tatum Under 3.5 Made Threes (-148)

Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet: Celtics Money Line (-104)

If you’ve been doubting the Boston Celtics' dominance this season, it's time to reconsider and back them in Game 4 to win outright, capturing their first title since 2008. As noted on The Ryen Russillo Podcast, betting on the Celtics as underdogs is an opportunity not to be missed.

Through three games, the Mavericks haven’t shown they can compete with the Celtics. The Celtics excel in teamwork, floor spacing and ball sharing. Each offensive drive features off-ball cuts and relocations for open threes.

In contrast, the Mavericks rely on isolation plays from Doncic and Irving, lacking connective play and offensive flow. The Celtics have effectively neutralized Dallas' role players, forcing Doncic and Irving to carry the load. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the trio of Derrick White, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have stepped up defensively.

Brian Windhorst of ESPN criticized Luka Doncic’s defensive effort and his constant complaints to referees after Game 3 – a sign the Mavs star is not in the right headspace to lead his team to victory. The Celtics have yet to lose on the road this postseason and are prepared to win, while the Mavericks appear overmatched and overwhelmed. Bet on the more complete team to sweep the series – Boston Celtics Money Line (-104).

Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet: Under 211.5 Total Points (-110)

The first three games have all hit the under, with the Mavericks failing to score 100 points in any game. The Celtics' defense has been stifling, and the Mavericks' slow pace and reliance on Doncic and Irving haven't helped. The game totals for each NBA Finals matchup have been 196, 203 and 205 points respectively. Despite a slight adjustment in the over/under, 211.5 points still seems high given the trends. Unless the Mavericks make significant offensive changes, betting Under 211.5 Total Points (-110) remains wise.

Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet: Jayson Tatum Under 3.5 Made Threes (-148)

As a safety net, consider Jayson Tatum under 3.5 made threes as our best Celtics vs Mavericks player prop bet. Tatum has only surpassed this mark twice in 17 playoff games this year. His Game 3 performance saw him hit four threes, but on 13 attempts, many of which were forced shots. The Celtics' game plan doesn't depend on Tatum hitting numerous threes, and he's likely to focus more on driving to the basket for easier points. Betting on Tatum Under 3.5 Made Threes (-148) is a solid, low-risk play. 

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