NBA Christmas Day 2025 Best Picks and Predictions 

Although the NFL may have usurped what had been a borderline monopoly on the Christmas schedule of sports by the NBA, you still can’t disregard hoops amidst the trio of pro football games. The association offers plenty of yuletide gifts, including Spurs vs. Thunder, Rockets vs. Lakers and Timberwolves vs. Nuggets. For the two Western Conference powerhouses in San Antonio and Oklahoma City, it marks their third head-to-head matchup dating back to the recent NBA Cup semifinals. Let’s break down my NBA predictions and best bets for the Christmas Day slate. 

NBA Christmas Day Predictions 

Pick #1: Cleveland Cavaliers +6 over New York Knicks (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Golden State Warriors (-105) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 over Houston Rockets (-105) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Cavaliers +6 over Knicks (-110) Click Here to Bet

The Christmas schedule tips off at Madison Square Garden, where the NBA Cup champions entertain the Cavs. Although the Knicks deserve to be favored since they boast a 20-9 record and are playing at home, a six-point spread is a bit unreasonable. Their stock is inflated due to the recent cup title and probably because it’s a Christmas at MSG situation.

Still, this is a spot that Cleveland can handle – if the visitors don’t win outright, they should at least be able to cover. Donovan Mitchell and company have momentum in the form of a two-game winning streak that includes a 141-118 beatdown of a previously red-hot New Orleans squad on Tuesday night. New York, on the other hand, got clipped at Minnesota 115-104 on Tuesday. Jalen Brunson will be back after missing that loss, but OG Anunoby’s status seems like it’s more up in the air. 

PICK #2: Mavericks +7.5 over Warriors (-105) Click Here to Bet

The Mavericks were 4.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks when the Christmas market opened, but they are now getting 7.5 points and have great value as a result. Although there is no denying that Dallas has been a disappointment this season, improvement is being shown. Head coach Jason Kidd’s crew has won of 7 its last 11 contests. This stretch includes victories over Denver, Miami, Houston and Detroit. Klay Thompson missed Tuesday’s game against Denver with a knee injury but could be ready to face his former team and would be well rested if that’s the case.

The Warriors (15-15) have not exactly been living up to expectations, either. They are significant favorites in this matchup because, well, they are the Warriors. The public loves them and trusts them due to their recent history, because they still have Steph Curry and based on Thursday’s home-court advantage. Despite those factors, 7.5 points are too many.

PICK #3: Lakers +4.5 over Rockets (-105) Click Here to Bet

Christmas Day lines have been out for a long time, and the Lakers opened as favorites. The shift is due to the Rockets’ outstanding form and because Los Angeles could be without Luka Doncic. The star guard left last Saturday’s game against the Clippers with a leg contusion and missed Tuesday’s contest against Phoenix. Although Houston is a formidable foe, the value is on LA catching a good chunk of points at home.

The Rockets are stellar on the glass and have the ability to stretch the floor, but the Lakers can match almost any opponent in those departments. Although Doncic’s potential absence would obviously be a big blow for Los Angeles, LeBron James and Austin Reaves are more than capable of stepping up and providing their team with the necessary star power to counter Houston’s Kevin Durant. It is also worth noting that – as of Tuesday – the Rockets are a modest 9-7 on the road compared to 8-2 at home.