Michigan vs. UConn Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

No. 4 UConn and No. 16 Michigan meet at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston, a neutral-site game in the Hall of Fame Series Boston. Michigan beat UConn 69-63 in last season's national title game, but both rosters have turned over since: Michigan replaced three NBA lottery picks, and UConn rebuilt its frontcourt with transfers Na'Jai Hines and Nik Khamenia. Our read is a slow, physical game where UConn's defense and rebounding wear down a Michigan team that couldn't shoot in its opener. That gives us UConn by eight or more and a final score under 144.5.

Michigan vs. UConn Predictions

• Pick #1: UConn -7.5 (-109)
• Pick #2: Under 144.5 (-110)

PICK #1: UConn -7.5 (-109)

Michigan's opener worries us more than UConn's impresses us. The Wolverines beat Oakland 84-68, yet they went 7-of-34 from three and gave up 21 offensive rebounds. Elliot Cadeau, the point guard who scored 19 in the title game, managed seven points on 1-of-5 shooting with five turnovers. Center Moustapha Thiam missed that game with an illness. Michigan's coach expects him to play, which helps on the glass, but it also means a big man who hasn't played a game yet going up against this front line. Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. is out for the season with a torn ACL, so there isn't much behind the starters.

UConn looked like the opposite. Gardner-Webb shot 25.5% in an 86-46 loss, the Huskies won the boards by 18, and Hines, the Seton Hall transfer, had 12 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks. Silas Demary Jr. handed out eight assists without a turnover and Braylon Mullins scored 20. It was one game against a weak opponent, so treat it as a hint.

Earlier previews had UConn at -5.5, and the number is now -7.5. UConn has 79% of the spread bets and 88% of the money. The -109 price implies a 52.2% chance. The argument for Michigan is that the starting fives are close and its guards are physical enough to keep this to a possession late. We think depth and rebounding decide it, and UConn has both.

PICK #2: Under 144.5 (-110)

The same mismatch should keep the score down. UConn held its opener to 46 points, and Michigan couldn't hit from outside against a much weaker team. The Wolverines still reached 84 against Oakland, but 48 of those points came in the paint, and UConn's size should make that much harder.

The total sat at 146.5 in earlier previews and has dropped to 144.5. The Under is the popular side, drawing 78% of the bets and 70% of the money, and -110 implies a 52.4% chance. Both openers stayed under their totals (157.5 for Michigan, 147.5 for UConn), though one game each against weak teams is thin. Fouls could undo it. Michigan was whistled 24 times against Oakland and Hines has been foul-prone, so a game spent at the free-throw line could push this over.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.