Michigan State vs. UCLA Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:10 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:06 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0 Big Ten) hosts Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Bob Chesney took over a 3-9 team this year, and the Bruins are unbeaten. Michigan State has dropped five straight, the last two by a combined four points: 38-37 in overtime to Illinois and 24-21 to Northwestern.

The Bruins averaged 44.8 points over their first four games. Then Nico Iamaleava got hurt at Oregon, and he's out for the season. UCLA has scored 17 in both games since, winning 17-15 at Oregon and 17-7 over Wisconsin. Ty Dieffenbach makes his second start after going 22 of 33 for 264 yards against the Badgers. The defense has done the heavy lifting, allowing 16.2 points per game and just 25 points over the last three, with 19 takeaways on the season.

Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has been listed questionable on every Big Ten availability report this week, and backup Cam Fancher is out. If Milivojevic can't go, true freshman Kayd Coffman is expected to start, and he hasn't thrown a pass this season. Running back Jaziun Patterson is questionable too, and four Spartan cornerbacks are out. The total opened at 47.5 and has fallen three points. Expect sun, temperatures around 70 and light wind.

Our read: UCLA's defense wins a low-scoring game, and a Michigan State offense with few other answers keeps throwing short to its tight end. Both picks cash in that game.

Michigan State vs. UCLA Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 44.5 (-118)
• Pick #2: Jayden Savoury 20+ Receiving Yards (-183)

PICK #1: Under 44.5 (-118)

UCLA's offense has changed since the quarterback change. The Bruins gained 140 rushing yards at Oregon and 120 against Wisconsin, their two lowest totals of the season, and Wayne Knight managed 23 yards on 13 carries against the Badgers. Michigan State won't make it easy to get that going again. Six of its seven opponents averaged four yards a carry or less; Wisconsin, at 5.4, is the only one that got more.

The Spartans scored 10 at Notre Dame and 3 at Wisconsin in their two road games. UCLA has given up 3, 15 and 7 points in its last three and has forced 19 turnovers. Four of Michigan State's seven games finished with 44 points or fewer, and UCLA's last two totaled 32 and 24.

At -118, the Under needs to hit 54.1% of the time. We like it more than that because of the matchup: a UCLA offense that has scored 17 in back-to-back games faces a defense that limits yards per carry, and a Michigan State offense that has struggled away from home may be starting a freshman.

Michigan State and Illinois did combine for 75 points two weeks ago, and UCLA put 52 on Purdue in September. Dieffenbach could also find room against a secondary missing four cornerbacks. And with the total already down three points, the market has caught on to some of this.

PICK #2: Jayden Savoury 20+ Receiving Yards (-183)

Savoury, a tight end, leads Michigan State with 27 catches for 261 yards and has gone over 20 yards in all seven games. His low is 24, against Nebraska. He has caught at least two passes every game and four or more in five games.

The Notre Dame trip is the best guide for Saturday. Milivojevic threw only 17 passes, Michigan State scored 10, and Savoury still caught three balls for 30 yards. His longest catch over the last five games is 22 yards, so he gets there with short, steady work. UCLA also has two defensive backs, Rodrick Pleasant and Tao Johnson, listed out.

The -183 price implies a 64.7% chance. He has cleared this number in every game, including the one that looked most like this matchup, so we'll pay it.

The risk is the quarterback. Milivojevic has started every game this season, so all seven of those results came with him throwing. If Coffman starts, there's no history of how Savoury fits with him. The 24-yard day against Nebraska is a reminder of how thin the margin can get.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.