Mavericks vs. Spurs Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:28 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

The Spurs (5-2) host the Mavericks (4-3) at Frost Bank Center, with tip-off at 9:30 PM ET. San Antonio has won five straight, and the first meeting showed how it beats Dallas: a 122-106 win in Dallas built on 64 points in the paint and 34 assists, with De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper getting into the lane all night. We expect the same plan tonight. That puts the ball at the rim, where Daniel Gafford is Dallas's main shot-blocker. It keeps Fox busy running the offense while Victor Wembanyama and Harper take the rebounds. And it leaves Devin Vassell as a spot-up fourth option. All three picks come out of that game.

Dallas is still thin up front. Dereck Lively II, Max Christie, Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic are out, and Santi Aldama, who has not played for Dallas yet, is questionable after knee surgery. Kyrie Irving sat out the loss to Sacramento for injury management, but he is not on the latest injury report and is projected to start next to Cooper Flagg. San Antonio hasn't seen the two together this season. The Spurs are without Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance, and their starting five of Fox, Castle, Harper, Vassell and Wembanyama is projected to stay together. San Antonio is an 11.5-point favorite.

Mavericks vs. Spurs Predictions

• Pick #1: Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 Blocks (+120)
• Pick #2: De'Aaron Fox Under 4.5 Rebounds (-164)
• Pick #3: Devin Vassell Under 1.5 Threes (+144)

PICK #1: Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 Blocks (+120)

Gafford blocked two shots in each of Dallas's first six games, the loss to San Antonio included, before getting one against Sacramento. That's 6 of 7 this season, and he leads the Mavericks at 1.9 blocks a game. With Lively out he is the starting center, and he has played 22 to 29 minutes in all but one game. In that one, at Indiana, he still blocked two in 15 minutes.

The Spurs will give him chances. Their guards attack the basket and Wembanyama works inside too, so a center who stays home sees a lot of shots at the rim. Plus money implies 45.5%, and he has cleared the line far more often than that.

Seven games is a short run. Last season he averaged 1.3 blocks in fewer minutes while dealing with nagging injuries. A blowout could cost him the fourth quarter, and so could foul trouble: he picked up four against Sacramento. If Aldama makes his debut, Gafford's minutes could dip a little.

PICK #2: De'Aaron Fox Under 4.5 Rebounds (-164)

Fox runs the show in this lineup, and the rebounds go to other people. Wembanyama averages 10.7 a game and Harper 5.7, with seven in each of the last two. Fox averages 6.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds, and he has grabbed four or fewer in 5 of 7 games this season: 7 against Oklahoma City, 4 against Houston, 3 at Dallas, 4 against Sacramento, 3 at Utah, 8 against Minnesota and 2 against Utah.

The longer record holds up. Last season he averaged 3.8 rebounds over 72 games and stayed under 4.5 in about two of every three. At -164 the implied chance is 62.1%, so this isn't a bargain, but the script helps. If San Antonio controls the game the way the spread says, his minutes shrink. He played 22 in the 22-point win over Utah and grabbed two. In the 11 games he played 25 minutes or fewer last season, he stayed under in eight.

A close game is the risk. Irving and Flagg together could keep this tight, and his two big nights this season were eight in 35 minutes against Minnesota and seven in a loss to Oklahoma City.

PICK #3: Devin Vassell Under 1.5 Threes (+144)

Vassell plays power forward now, in a lineup where Fox, Castle, Harper and Wembanyama take most of the shots. He is attempting 4.3 threes a game, down from 6.4 last season, when he made 2.5 a game. He has made one or none in 5 of 7 games this season, including one in 32 minutes at Dallas. His only big night was four makes in 24 minutes against Sacramento.

The market still prices him like last season's shooter, with the Over at -191. The Under at +144 implies 41.0%, and in his new role he has been well above that, small sample and all. In a game the Spurs win inside, his value is more on defense, where he leads the team at 1.7 steals a game.

Seven games is not much against a long career as a shooter, and one hot quarter beats this ticket. Dallas's thin rotation could also leave him open on kick-outs.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.