Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:36 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Miami is still looking for its first win. The Heat are 0-3 after losing 131-106 to Minnesota and 128-111 to Detroit at home, then 115-110 at Charlotte, a game in which Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 14 and fouled out. Dallas is 1-2: a 128-110 loss at Houston, a 121-105 win at Indiana and a 122-106 home loss to San Antonio. Tip-off is 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center, on NBA TV. Both teams played back-to-back nights before getting a day off.

The Mavericks arrive short-handed. Naji Marshall (illness) is out, Caleb Martin (thumb) is doubtful, Dereck Lively II is still out after foot surgery, and Cooper Flagg is questionable with the left shoulder sprain that ended his night at Indiana after 17 minutes and kept him out against San Antonio. Kyrie Irving is off the injury report after sitting that San Antonio game.

We think Miami's defense decides this one. The Heat have allowed 124.7 points a game, tied for 26th in the league, while scoring 109.0, 26th. It's only three games, but a team that can't get stops and can't score much has trouble pulling away from anybody. We expect Dallas to score enough to stay inside the number and help push this game over the total. Miami is -8.5 (-325 on the moneyline, Dallas +260), and the spread hasn't moved since it opened. The total has climbed from 233.5 to 238.5.

Mavericks vs. Heat Predictions

• Pick #1: Mavericks +8.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 238.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Mavericks +8.5 (-110)

Laying 8.5 with a team that hasn't won yet is a big ask. Minnesota scored 131 and Detroit 128 in Miami, and two of the Heat's three losses were by double digits. A team scoring 109 a game doesn't build many nine-point leads.

The market hasn't leaned on Dallas, either. The spread has sat at 8.5 since it opened, through a stretch of Dallas injury news that cut both ways: Flagg upgraded to questionable, Irving cleared and Marshall ruled out. Some books hang 9.5, a better number for Dallas, and DRatings has Miami by 7.6. The -110 price implies 52.4%.

Dallas has covered 8.5 once in three games, the 16-point win at Indiana. That night Flagg played only 17 minutes, and Irving (24 points) and Max Christie (16) carried the scoring. The two losses were by 18 at Houston and 16 against San Antonio, and the San Antonio game came without Flagg or Irving. Irving is off the injury report this time.

Depth is the worry. Marshall scored 16, 15 and 10 in his three games, and he's out along with Martin and Lively. If Flagg sits too, Dallas leans on Irving, P.J. Washington and Christie against an Antetokounmpo who has scored 35 or more twice already.

PICK #2: Over 238.5 (-110)

Miami has given up 131, 128 and 115 so far, and that 115 came from Charlotte. The Heat's 124.7 allowed is where this pick starts.

The market has moved the same way, five full points from 233.5 to 238.5 since it opened. That move came with Flagg's upgrade and Irving's return, even with Marshall ruled out on the same report, so it reads as the market pricing in a fuller Dallas lineup. Some books have 236.5, a better number for the Over. That -110 works out to 52.4%.

Dallas should do its part. The Mavericks average 112.3 points, and with Flagg and Irving both playing at Houston, Flagg scored 32 in 33 minutes. Miami's offense runs through Antetokounmpo, who scored 35 against Minnesota and 36 on 26 shots against Detroit before his foul-trouble night in Charlotte.

The history at this number doesn't help much. Only one of the six games these teams have played went over 238.5, Detroit at Miami with 239, and Miami is scoring just 109 a game. That's why Flagg matters here: if he's ruled out, part of the reason the total climbed goes with him.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.