March Madness National Championship Best Bets
After a long and grueling college basketball season and three weeks of March Madness action, all roads have finally led to the NCAA National Championship Game on Monday. Following a couple of tremendous Final Four games, we’ll see two of the top three teams in KenPom square off tonight, when the Houston Cougars take on the Florida Gators in what has the potential to be one of the best title games in recent memory.
With both teams just one game away from winning it all, let’s dive into our March Madness National Championship picks and best bets for the action.
March Madness National Championship best bets
Pick #1: Florida Gators ML vs Houston Cougars (-115)
Pick #2: Over 140.5 Total Points (-112)
Pick #3: Alijah Martin Over 12.5 Points (+102)
Pick #1: Florida Gators ML vs Houston Cougars (-115)
For our first bet of the National Championship, let’s target the Florida Gators to knock off Houston and win its first championship in nearly two decades.
Both teams are near the top of the ranks on both sides of the ball, with each sitting inside the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. On offense, Houston loves taking midrange jumpers, and Florida’s defense should be more than happy to concede some of those looks in exchange for taking away three-point opportunities from the guard trio of Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan, all of whom can get hot from deep.
Houston’s offense just struggled mightily from inside the arc against Duke, and Florida's athletic guards and deep rotation of bigs in the post should create more issues for a Cougars offense that has the propensity to go through scoring droughts.
When analyzing Florida’s offensive game plan, it's reasonable to assume that Houston's plan on defense will be to consistently send multiple players to the ball and get it out of Walter Clayton Jr.'s hands. However, against a team with Alijah Martin and Will Richard in the backcourt, along with sophomore forward Thomas Haugh playing like a first-round pick off the bench, that strategy could lead to a ton of advantageous 4-on-3 situations for Florida's elite offense.
Ultimately, we trust what is a veteran Gators team to consistently make the right decisions down the stretch, and if the game ends up coming down to the final few minutes, we can trust the Gators' poise to shine through when everything is on the line.
Pick #2: Over 140.5 Total Points (-112)
For our second best bet, let’s take the Over in a game that could feature a few more points than what the market expects.
The Gators will likely look to get out and run in transition off long rebounds as much as possible, seeing as Houston's defense is a completely different beast in the halfcourt. However, even if Florida is forced to play slower than it would like, this is still one of the top three-point shooting teams in this tournament, and the Gators certainly have the personnel to knock down 10+ threes in this game.
Despite its defense-first reputation, Houston is still an outstanding three-point shooting team, as the Cougars are hitting nearly 40% of their threes this season. Even if the Gators can send length and multiple bodies at the likes of LJ Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, one of those guards will get hot and knock down some shots at some point in the game.
Additionally, there’s also the matter of free throws to consider, as those looks from the line tend to be a bit more plentiful for both teams in a game of this magnitude. Ultimately, this is a game where I could see both teams hitting 70+ points, especially if it’s a close, back-and-forth contest. With that in mind, let's back the Over on Monday.
Pick #3: Alijah Martin (Florida) Over 12.5 Points (+102)
For our final best bet of the National Championship, we're backing Alijah Martin to clear his 12.5-point total on Monday.
Martin's previous Final Four experience as a part of Florida Atlantic in 2023 showed itself on Saturday, as the senior tallied 17 points and made multiple impact plays for the Gators. Martin can knock down massive shots, but he can also get to the rim, as we saw with his pair of thunderous dunks in the second half to ignite Florida's offense in the victory over Auburn.
With Houston's defense expected to focus most of its attention on slowing down Walter Clayton Jr., Martin is a player who should shine with a higher workload in this game. For that reason, we’ll target his points over at plus money.
