March Madness First Round best bets
It’s the most wonderful time of year for college basketball fans everywhere. The NCAA tournament bracket has been released, the field of 68 is set and the road to the Final Four will get underway on Tuesday, March 18.
Once the First Four is completed, the madness will get started in earnest on Thursday, March 20 with 32 games taking place over a jam-packed two days of basketball.
With each team in the field looking to make a statement on the sport’s biggest stage, let’s dive into our expert’s March Madness first-round picks and best bets for the action.
March Madness First Round Predictions
Pick #1: High Point Panthers vs Purdue Boilermakers over 153.5 (-110)
Pick #2: Yale Bulldogs +7.5 vs Texas A&M Aggies (-110)
Pick #3: UC San Diego Tritons ML over Michigan Wolverines (+130)
PICK #1: High Point vs Purdue Over 153.5 (-110)
For our first best bet of the first round slate, let’s take the overin High Point vs Purdue in the Midwest Region.
Both of these teams aren’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively, as High Point ranks 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom while Purdue is shockingly dead last in the country in two-point defense since the turn of the calendar year.
There’s also the matter of the offensive makeup of these teams, as both sides should be able to generate consistent offense via strong play from their consistent and experienced guards. Most college basketball fans are aware of Purdue floor general Braden Smith, who is one of the best point guards in the nation.
However, the deeper team in this game is undoubtedly High Point, as the Panthers play a rotation of 10 players, with some of their most important pieces off the bench originally hailing from power conference programs.
While neither team plays at an extremely fast pace, both offenses are among the most efficient in the nation for a reason. Let’s back the over in a game that should be close throughout, and likely won’t feature much defense to speak of.
PICK #2: Yale +7.5 over Texas A&M (-110)
For our second pick in the first round, let’s go with the Yale Bulldogs to keep things close against the Texas A&M Aggies in the South Region.
Over the years, the Ivy League has consistently outperformed expectations in the tournament. In fact, of the last 12 Ivy League teams to qualify for the NCAA tournament, six of them won their first-round game, with two of those six actually making it to the Sweet 16. Furthermore, even if the Ivy League team lost its opening round game, they typically did so by five or fewer points.
These stats include this Yale program, which knocked off Auburn last year in a similar style of #4 seed vs #13 seed matchup. The Bulldogs were massive underdogs in that game against an elite Auburn team, but that isn’t the case this time around, and for good reason.
The Bulldogs aren’t quite the same team as last season, but they still dominated the Ivy League and held their own against the best Power 4 competition they faced this year, including losing to Purdue by single digits on the road.
Against a Texas A&M team that has to win in a very specific way (dominating the rebounding battle, making threes), there is a real path for Yale to keep this game close, and potentially even win outright.
PICK #3: UC San Diego ML over Michigan (+130)
A popular upset pick in most bracket pools is going to be taking at least one #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed. This is a common upset over the years, and our choice for this year’s #12 over #5 upset comes in the South Region. UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, and the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset over Michigan in the first round on Thursday.
From a situational spot perspective, the Wolverines are coming off playing three games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament last Sunday. Now, they’ll have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a UC San Diego team that won 30 games this season and is one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytic sites, such as KenPom, Barttorvik, etc.
Part of why UC San Diego will be live in this game is that this is a pretty difficult team to prepare for. The Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense.
However, the biggest edge in this game for UC San Diego is its ability to force a ton of turnovers, especially against a turnover-prone Wolverines team that could find themselves in big trouble on Thursday. All things considered, we’ll take the Tritons to pull off the outright upset on the money line.
