March Madness First Round Best Bets

March Madness First Round best bets 

Is there anything better in the world of sports than the first two days of the NCAA Tournament? Maybe not, because March Madness tips off in earnest with 32 college basketball games on Thursday and Friday. Top seeds begin their title bids, but for some, those quests might not even get off the ground. Upsets are bound to happen. The question for your brackets – and for your bets – is where those upsets will come. Let’s take a look at some of the March Madness best bets to make for the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness 2026 First Round Predictions 

Pick #1: VCU Rams ML over North Carolina Tar Heels (+120) 

Pick #2: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Clemson Tigers Under 129.5 (-115) 

Pick #3: Miami Hurricanes -1.5 over Missouri Tigers (-114) 

PICK #1: VCU ML over North Carolina (+120) 

This would not be some kind of signature March Madness upset, but it would be an upset nonetheless. And it’s one that has good value, given that VCU is playing great and North Carolina is without Caleb Wilson. The Rams have won 16 of their last 17 games, and their only loss during this stretch is to St. Louis, which earned a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Phil Martelli Jr.’s team has more momentum than ever right now after clinching an automatic berth in the Big Dance by winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The Tar Heels, on the other hand, lost their opening contest in the ACC Tournament to Clemson. Wilson, who was averaging 19.8 ppg, fractured his left hand on February 10 and then broke his right thumb after returning to practice. With its star freshman sidelined, UNC has only two players scoring more than 9.8 points per game. 

PICK #2: Iowa vs. Clemson Under 129.5 (-115) 

Clemson is another ACC team that is dealing with injury issues. Junior forward Carter Welling, the Tigers’ second-leading scorer at 10.2 ppg, is out for the season with a torn ACL that he sustained in the conference tournament. Zac Foster (6.9 ppg) already went down with the same injury in December. Because Welling is on the shelf, head coach Brad Brownell has just one guy on his roster averaging in double-figures (RJ Godfrey with 11.9 ppg). As such, it is not going to be easy for Clemson to score against an Iowa team that boasts one of the best defenses in college basketball.

The Hawkeyes are allowing just 66.0 points per contest, ranking No. 15 nationally in that department. Fortunately for the Tigers, they are surrendering only 66.7 points per game. Iowa leading scorer Bennett Stirtz (20.0 ppg) is only 12-for-42 from three-point range in his last five outings. 

PICK #3: Miami -1.5 over Missouri (-114) 

There is no way to sugarcoat it – Missouri is stumbling into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers have lost three games in a row, a stretch that includes a 16-point setback against Oklahoma and an immediate exit from the SEC Tournament at the hands of Kentucky. They are also 3-5 in their last eight games.

Meanwhile, Miami is 8-3 in its last 11 games with top-25 wins over North Carolina and Louisville (in the ACC Tournament) and a three-point loss to conference runner-up Virginia. Good guard play is crucial during March Madness and the Hurricanes have it in the form of senior leader Tre Donaldson. The Michigan transfer is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. Four different ‘Canes are averaging at least 12.1 ppg (including forward Malik Reneau at 18.8 ppg), so this team has plenty of firepower.