March Madness Final Four Best Bets

The Final Four is finally here, and this year’s matchups feel as tight as any we’ve seen in recent memory. We’ve broken down three of the best bets for the national semifinals, including a side, a spread and a player prop worth targeting.

Final Four Predictions

• Arizona Money Line (+105) vs. Michigan
• Illinois -2.5 (-110) vs. UConn
• Yaxel Lendeborg 3+ Threes Made (+140) vs. Arizona

PICK #1: Arizona Money Line (+105)

This matchup between Arizona and Michigan is about as close to a coin flip as you’ll find in March, and that’s exactly why Arizona offers value as a slight underdog. Michigan may be the more efficient shooting team, especially inside the arc, but Arizona counters with advantages that tend to matter more in high-pressure tournament games: ball security, offensive rebounding, and free-throw generation.

Arizona’s ability to crash the glass and create second-chance opportunities could be the defining factor. Michigan has shown occasional sloppiness with the ball, and against a disciplined Arizona squad, those extra possessions can swing the outcome.

Another key element is Arizona’s frontcourt depth. Few teams can match Michigan’s size and physicality, but Arizona is one of them. With multiple bodies to throw at Michigan’s interior trio, they can neutralize that strength and shift the game toward the perimeter.

If that happens, Arizona’s backcourt has the edge. Their combination of shot creation and scoring versatility gives them a slight advantage in what should be a back-and-forth battle. In a game likely decided in the final minutes, taking plus money on the more balanced team is the play.

PICK #2: Illinois -2.5 (-110)

Illinois enters this matchup with UConn boasting the most efficient offense in college basketball, and that firepower should ultimately prove too much for the Huskies. While UConn’s defensive structure is strong and well-coached, they simply don’t have the same level of shot creation or scoring upside.

Illinois thrives on spacing and ball movement, consistently generating open looks from beyond the arc. Even against a defense that prioritizes running shooters off the line, the Illini have enough versatility to adjust, whether that’s attacking closeouts or finding scoring opportunities off the dribble.

The biggest mismatch, however, comes on the offensive glass. Illinois has a clear edge in rebounding, and those extra possessions could wear down a UConn team that already operates with a thin margin for error. If UConn’s big man Tarris Reed Jr. gets into foul trouble, that advantage only grows.

There’s also a revenge angle in play. Illinois lost to UConn in November, and they got destroyed in the Elite Eight a couple of years ago, but this roster looks more than ready to flip the script. With multiple players capable of taking over offensively and a system built for efficiency, Illinois can cover and advance.

PICK #3: Yaxel Lendeborg 3+ Threes Made (+140)

If Michigan is going to keep pace with Arizona, Yaxel Lendeborg will need to be a major factor, and not just in the paint. Arizona’s interior defense is among the best in the country, meaning clean looks around the rim will be hard to come by. That naturally pushes Michigan’s offense outward, which is where Lendeborg becomes extremely intriguing. He’s been on a tear from beyond the arc during the tournament, consistently stepping up in big moments and showing a willingness to take (and make) perimeter shots. With Arizona likely packing the paint and forcing outside looks, his volume should be there.

This is also a usage play. In a high-stakes semifinal, Michigan will lean heavily on its top players, and Lendeborg fits that bill. He’ll have opportunities in both half-court sets and transition, especially if Arizona collapses defensively inside. At plus money, you’re betting on both opportunity and recent form, and right now, Lendeborg is delivering on both. If he gets hot early, this prop could cash well before the final buzzer.