March Madness 2025 picks & NCAA Tournament best bets

It’s the most wonderful time of year. The NCAA tournament bracket has been released, the field of 68 is set and the road to the Final Four will get underway on Tuesday, March 18. 

It’s almost time to find out who will cut down the nets in San Antonio. Our college basketball expert has analyzed the matchups and has a pair of best bets for the National Championship market, as well as a longshot angle for the opening weekend of the tournament.  

• Duke - +290
• Florida +390
• Auburn +500
• Houston +700
• Alabama +2000
• Tennessee +2200
• Texas Tech +2800
• Iowa State +2900
• Michigan State +3000
• Arizona +4000
• Gonzaga +4500
• Kentucky +5500
• Wisconsin +6000
• Illinois +6000
• Missouri +7500

NCAA National Championship Odds - Best Bet: Florida (+390)

From a price perspective, this is not the greatest number on the board. With that said, our expert is not eager to step in front of a Florida side that is arguably playing better than any other team in the country. 

The Gators are absolutely rolling, having won six straight and 12 of their last 13 games, and Florida looks like the most complete team in the nation on both sides of the ball of late. The Gators also have arguably the best road wins in the nation over Auburn and Alabama, so we know they can get it done away from home in high-pressure spots.  

Florida can beat you in a number of different ways, but it all starts in the backcourt with the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin. Furthermore, it’s the quartet of big men that really form a massive edge for Todd Golden's team with their ability to pass, cut and rebound in traffic. 

Florida wasn’t given many favors with its draw, as the West Region features a number of quality opponents (St. John’s, Texas Tech, Maryland, etc.). However, this is a team that is a whopping 5-1 against the trio of Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama this season, so the Gators won’t be intimated against the best competition from conferences that are noticeably weaker than the SEC this season. 

Ultimately, we believe Florida is the best team in the field, and the Gators would likely be favored in almost every title game matchup, with the exception of Duke. This price can only get shorter, so we’ll take it at the current number.

Longshot Bet: Michigan State (+3000) 

A Tom Izzo team is once again peaking at the right time. That’s right, Michigan State is a clear national title threat heading into this NCAA tournament, and the Spartans have a pretty clear path to the second weekend in the South Region. 

Izzo’s team fits his typical style of a gritty, defense-first unit and that will come in handy against new opponents in March who will need to adapt to playing against a team of this caliber. 

On offense, the Spartans are elite in transition with freshman guard Jase Richardson at the controls, and Michigan State has the ability to make its opponents play at the pace it wants, which is also a big edge against teams from other conferences who haven’t faced the Spartans yet this season. 

If the chalk holds, Michigan State would have to play Auburn in an Elite Eight matchup, but the Tigers have limped into this field, having lost three of their last four games and making this a winnable matchup. From there, anything can happen in the Final Four, and there should be at least some good value on a potential hedge with this ticket.

Other Futures Bet: UC San Diego to reach the Sweet 16 (+410)

UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, and the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset over Michigan in the first round. 

The Wolverines just played three games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament championship, and they’ll now have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a team that won 30 games this season and is one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytics (KenPom, Barttorvik, etc). 

UC San Diego plays a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots to get a great shot, which is part of why the Tritons have a very consistent offense. But it’s a defense that forces a ton of turnovers that could get a turnover-prone Wolverines team in big trouble on Thursday. 

If the Tritons knock off Michigan, they’ll face either Texas A&M or Yale in the next round. The Aggies are a very flawed offense, while Yale might not have the defensive chops to stop UC San Diego from picking them apart over the course of a game. Therefore, we’ll grab the +410 on this bet.