Manhattan vs. Kentucky Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:49 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:47 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

No. 23 Kentucky opens its season against Manhattan at 7:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena, streaming on SEC Network+. We expect a blowout built on defense. Manhattan's rebuilt roster can't score enough to stay within 33.5, and Kentucky's defense keeps the total down while it pulls away. So we're laying the points and taking the Under.

The record to work from is short. Neither team has a regular-season result yet: Kentucky went 3-0 in exhibitions, and Manhattan played none. Last season's numbers come from rosters that have changed a lot, Manhattan's most of all, since it brings back only about a third of last season's players. The lineups below are projections.

Manhattan vs. Kentucky Predictions

• Pick #1: Kentucky -33.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Under 158.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Kentucky -33.5 (-105)

Mark Pope's Kentucky doesn't ease off against low-majors at home. Last season it played seven of them at Rupp Arena and won five by 36 or more, including 107-59 over Valparaiso, 88-46 over Loyola (MD) and 104-54 over Tennessee Tech. Only Nicholls (77-51) and Bellarmine (99-85) stayed inside this number. The roster is different now. The coach and the building aren't, and Manhattan looks more like the weaker teams in that group than the stronger ones.

The Jaspers went 12-20 last season and 3-12 on the road, allowing 78.9 points per game on 46.6% shooting. They were picked 10th of 12 in their league, and they walk into Rupp without a single exhibition together.

Size is the obvious mismatch. Malachi Moreno, who put up 16 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists against UCF, and Ousmane N'Diaye are both 7-footers. Manhattan's tallest projected starter is 6-10.

You're not getting the best of the number. Kentucky has gone from -31.5 to -33.5 since the line went up, and -105 implies a 51.2% chance. Two widely used preseason ratings have Kentucky by 29 and 36, so we're betting Kentucky lands on the high side of that range. There are real ways to lose. The new backcourt had scoring droughts against Little Rock and UCF, Zoom Diallo has shot poorly, and Kam Williams is out. A long run for the end of the bench can also shave points off a margin quickly.

PICK #2: Under 158.5 (-110)

Look at how Kentucky won those low-major blowouts last season. It held five of the seven to 59 points or fewer, and four of the seven games stayed under 158.5. When Kentucky's defense smothers a weak opponent, the total has often stayed down even with Kentucky near 100.

Manhattan shot 42.6% from the field last season, and most of that roster is gone. The new group has to find an offense against Kentucky's size in its first game together. Kentucky's exhibitions weren't shootouts either. It beat Little Rock 69-49 and Texas Tech 76-65, then needed overtime to get past UCF 90-76.

The total hasn't budged from 158.5. At -110 you're paying for a 52.4% chance, and the same preseason ratings project totals of 159 and 160, so this is a bet on Manhattan's offense rather than a big gap with the market. The tickets are close to even on the total, and the money leans slightly to the Over.

Kentucky's shooting is what beats it. Pope says this is the best shooting roster he has coached, and Milan Momcilovic led the team in scoring through the exhibitions. Manhattan gave up plenty of points last season, and if the Jaspers answer a hot Kentucky start by trading baskets instead of getting smothered, the total climbs fast.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.