MLB Friday Picks May 3, 2024

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by OddsCrowd Analysts

MLB Friday Picks, May 3, 2024

MLB Friday predictions

  • Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
  • Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics - Athletics Run Line (-115)
  • Yusei Kikuchi Over 16.5 Total Outs Recorded (-110)

MLB player prop pick: Alec Bohm O1.5 Total Bases (-115)

The first game we’ll target for Friday’s MLB picks is the San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies and we’re focusing on Phillies’ third baseman Alec Bohm. 

Bohm - a man with some of the best hair in baseball - was MLB Player of the Week last week in the National League on a .567 average (17-of-30) with six multi-hit games, including eight doubles and eight RBIs. He’s continued that torrid run this week as well, notching hits in his last three games and four RBIs, which puts him just behind Braves’ slugger Marcell Ozuna for second in MLB in that category. 

We like Bohm tonight to hit Over 1.5 Total Bases despite a tough matchup vs Jordan Hicks and the Giants. They’re coming into Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which still rates as one of the best ballparks for all hitters in baseball. While Bohm is on this run, you ride this wave at home tonight.

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics best bet: Athletics -1.5 (-115)

The next game we’re looking at for our Friday MLB picks is the matchup between the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics matchup; namely Athletics’ starter JP Sears. 

The Athletics, currently on a four-game winning streak, face the struggling Marlins at home. Despite initial perceptions, there's promise in this matchup, especially with Sears pitching. He gets a home start after four of his last five have come on the road. Baltimore roughed up Sears in his previous start, putting seven earned runs on the ledger, including three home runs. Despite that, Sears put up an admirable 3.68 ERA in those five April appearances. 

Things are lining up nicely for taking the Athletics -1.5 (-110) tonight: home start, Sears trending upwards and the Marlins’ inability to hit left-handed pitching, with by far the worst wRAA (weighted runs above average) vs lefties in baseball and bottom-five marks in wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate.  

MLB player prop pick: Yusei Kikuchi O16.5 Total Outs Recorded (-110)

Our final best bet for this evening’s matchups features the Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals and Blue Jays’ starter Yusei Kikuchi. 

While Kikuchi is on the road at Nationals Park tonight, he’s been excellent in his last five starts in April and looks to bring that run into May. With at least 18 outs recorded in his previous four starts, including outings against the Dodgers, Royals and Yankees, he’s been pretty dominant and giving his team a chance to win, which is all you ask for from a starter. Kikuchi finished April with a 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 32:5 K:BB ratio; all quality marks.

Washington is specifically one of the worst teams against left-handed pitchers, but are somehow worse at home. They’re the second-worst team in baseball behind the White Sox in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus - ballpark adjusted) and wOBA (weighted on-base average), but also adding a paltry .579 OPS against southpaws Kikuchi should be able to cruise through the Nats en route to 5.2 innings pitched or more, which is all we need to hit our Kikuchi Over 16.5 Total Outs Recorded prop tonight.

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