MLB Friday Picks April 26, 2024

MLB Friday predictions:

• Graham Ashcraft Under 17.5 Total Outs Recorded (-120)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres - Over 7.5 Runs (-115) 
• Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers - Texas Rangers Money Line (-165)

MLB player prop pick: Graham Ashcraft Under 17.5 Total Outs Recorded (-120)

The first game we’ll be targeting for Friday’s MLB picks is the Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers and we’re focusing on the Reds’ starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft with our player prop pick of the night. For the season, Ashcraft hasn’t been too stellar outside of the wins department, which can be misleading. He has three wins on the young season, but his ERA has ballooned to 5.24 in his four starts. The teams he’s faced haven’t been offensive juggernauts as he’s taken the bump against the Brewers, White Sox and Angels in his last three starts. 

We’re focusing on his total outs recorded for this player prop, as Ashcraft has gone under 17.5 total outs recorded in each of his last three starts. Ashcraft faces a tough Texas Rangers offense at home, which let’s face it: the defending champion Rangers at home are a much stiffer test than his last three opponents. 

As a pitcher who doesn’t miss a ton of bats in one of the worst ballparks for opposing pitchers, it’s not a great combo. We’ll take the under 17.5 total outs recorded here with Ashcraft now facing a superior lineup away from Great American Ball Park.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres best bet: Over 7.5 Runs (-115)

The next game we’re looking at for our Friday MLB picks is the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. Padres’ hurler Joe Musgrove gets the nod and like Ashcraft, he’s also dealing with an ERA north of five (5.74). Musgrove’s peripherals have lacked in the early going of 2024, giving up just shy of 11 hits and 3.2 walks per nine innings. 

Musgrove dealt with a shoulder injury last season and it could be seeping into his performance this season as his velocity has come down to 91.9 MPH in his last start against the Blue Jays. He’s pitching a bit over his head right now trending in the wrong direction despite a solid track record over his career. The Phils have won seven of their last nine games and look to continue that hot stretch against Musgrove, so we’ll take the over on the combined run total for tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers best bet: Rangers ML (-165)

For our other best bet for this evening’s matchups, we’ll go back to the Reds vs Rangers matchup and play the Rangers’ side of things with a bet on Texas. Rangers’ probable starter Nathan Eovaldi may have faltered a bit in his last two starts with a combined 13 hits and eight earned runs on the road against the Astros and Braves, but he should be able to bounce back against a middle-of-the-road Reds offense. 

We’ve detailed our thoughts on opposing starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft earlier, so align those thoughts with the Rangers’ Eovaldi rounding back into form at home after two tough road tests and we like the Rangers’ money line here for tonight.