Lions vs Texans NFL Week 10 SNF picks

We’re past the halfway point of the NFL regular season and it has flown by. Sunday Night Football for Week 10 pits two division leaders with Super Bowl aspirations against each other, with the Detroit Lions taking on the Houston Texans. The Lions have mowed down their competition en route to a 7-1 record in the NFC North. Same for the Texans at 6-3, though their offense has been more inconsistent in the passing game but has thrived with Joe Mixon running the ball. We’ve got Lions vs Texans picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 10, so let’s dive right in.

Predictions

Pick #1: Detroit Lions -3.5 over Houston Texans (-112)

Pick #2: Under 48.5 (-108)

Pick #3: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)

Pick #1: Lions -3.5 over Texans (-112)

We’ll begin our Lions vs Texans picks for SNF by taking the Detroit Lions -3.5 points over the Houston Texans. The Lions have been on a six-game winning streak and have wins over a lot of the better teams in the NFC, including the Vikings (31-29) and the Packers last week, 24-14. They’ve had a ton of luck playing indoors, but the fact that the Lions looked like the home team against the Packers in a rainy environment in Lambeau Field was very telling. The Lions can win in numerous ways, whether it be with the run with their two-headed backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, or with the arm of Jared Goff to his talented group of receivers.

The Lions are the highest-scoring team in the league (32 points per game) entering Week 10, and as much as we lauded the Texans last season for their passing game, it has struggled quite a bit. Houston is 19th in the NFL in EPA per play this season and Detroit has been one of the best defensive teams this season as well, with the fifth-best defensive EPA per play. The Lions should be able to score however they want, but I’m not as confident in the Texans matching them score for score. The Lions -3.5 (-112) seems like the play here despite being the road team.

Pick #2: Under 48.5 (-108)

The next pick in the Lions vs Texans SNF game is taking the under, which is set at 48.5 points. We talked about the passing game's struggles, and as of the time of this writing, it’s looking less and less likely that all-world wide receiver Nico Collins will suit up for the Texans. We know it’s been a battle of attrition for the Texans after losing Collins to a hamstring injury a month ago, but losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL tear was a tough blow to an offense that had already been underperforming. While Joe Mixon has been awesome for the Texans, if the Lions get up to a lead, C.J Stroud hasn’t been able to capitalize too much in the passing game this season.

If the Texans make this a game against the Lions, it will likely come via the defense, not by scoring with the Lions. The Texans have an above-average run defense in many metrics, including defensive EPA per rush attempt (12th-best), so if they can patch up running lanes and keep the Lions’ two-headed running back committee under wraps, that should keep the Texans within striking distance. This game isn’t likely to feature a ton of scoring and certainly not enough to get over the 48.5-point total for SNF.

Pick #3: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)

Our final Lions vs Texans pick for Sunday Night Football is taking Jahmyr Gibbs over a combined 83.5 rushing + receiving yards. Gibbs has been fantastically efficient this season, averaging 6.4 yards per carry as well as a top-five mark out of 47 qualified backs in rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att), raw RYOE, and an excellent 40.2% success rate (ROE%) per NFL Next Gen Stats. He’s getting the yards he needs to and thanks to a stellar offensive line, excellent game scripts and utilization, Gibbs has been one of the best running backs in the league.

With Gibbs having gone over the 83.5-yard total in five of eight games this season, it seems like a no-brainer here to take Gibbs over 83.5 rushing and receiving yards for Sunday Night Football.