Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction, NFL Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:15 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Detroit (5-2) brings a three-game winning streak to Miami Gardens for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff against the Dolphins (1-6). The Lions are 6.5-point favorites and the total is 50. They arrive banged up: Detroit ruled out five players, among them middle linebacker Jack Campbell, cornerback D.J. Reed, edge rusher DJ Wonnum and center Cade Mays. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury after three limited practices, though he was reported as expected to play. Miami lists three players as questionable, and Malik Willis is expected to start at quarterback after practicing fully all week.

Detroit is the better team, and its offense still runs through Jahmyr Gibbs, on the ground and on short throws. The injuries hurt more on defense. A Lions unit that already gives up the most passing yards in the league is missing two of its every-down players, and that gives Miami's rookie receiver room to work even if Detroit controls the scoreboard.

Lions vs. Dolphins Predictions

• Pick #1: Caleb Douglas Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)

PICK #1: Caleb Douglas Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Detroit allows 298.7 passing yards a game, the most in the NFL, and it got there with Campbell and Reed playing. Campbell was on the field for every defensive snap in his first six games and 77% last week before he got hurt. Reed played at least 79% of the snaps in all seven. Both are out, and so is Wonnum.

Douglas, a rookie, is listed first at receiver on Miami's depth chart and played 86% of the snaps against New England last week. He has cleared 40.5 yards in three of his four games, with 94 in the opener, 70 against the Jets and 43 last week; the miss was 19 at San Francisco. An ankle injury cost him three games in between, so four games is all there is to go on. At -114, he's priced as a 53.3% chance.

The concern is how often the ball finds him. His receptions line sits at 3.5 with the Under at -155, and his 70 yards against the Jets came on two catches, one of them for 63. Without a long gain he can stall in the 20s, and Miami scores only 16.7 points a game, 31st in the league. If Detroit gets ahead, though, the Dolphins have to throw, and they'll be throwing at a secondary playing without Reed. The pick needs Willis to start, and every sign points that way.

PICK #2: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)

Gibbs took over as Detroit's lead back when the Lions traded David Montgomery, and the receiving work came with the job. He has 34 catches on 44 targets in seven games and has reached five in five of them: five against New Orleans, six at Buffalo, seven against the Jets, five at Arizona and five against Green Bay. His snap share has stayed between 69% and 90% every week.

Game script hasn't mattered much. He caught five in a one-point overtime win over New Orleans, six in a loss at Buffalo and five in a 45-21 rout of Arizona, so a Detroit lead shouldn't push him out of the passing game. The -105 price implies 51.2%.

He did catch only four at Carolina and two last week, when he ran 23 times for 153 yards against Minnesota. Last season, sharing the backfield with Montgomery, he got to five catches in just 6 of 17 games, and the Under at -121 suggests the market still prices in that history. His backups, Sione Vaki (ankle) and Jacob Saylors (neck), are questionable, which should keep Gibbs on the field. If the ribs limit St. Brown, more of the short targets go to the back.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.