Lions vs. Cardinals Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:18 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Both teams are coming off high-scoring losses, and the total shows it at 54.5. Detroit (2-2) lost 32-26 at Carolina last Sunday night, and Arizona (1-3) blew a 14-3 lead over the Giants and lost 36-24, the last six points coming on a 98-yard interception return on the final play. The Lions are 5.5-point road favorites (-109) and -250 on the moneyline. Before Week 4 this game was Detroit -8.5 with a total in the high 40s, so the total has climbed about six points. The public followed it up: 69% of total bets and 76% of the money are on the Over, and 91% of moneyline bets are on Detroit.

Blame the Detroit defense for the move. It gives up 31.75 points a game, and only New Orleans is worse. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 327 yards a game against it before sack losses come off (304 after), the most in the league either way, and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and safety Brian Branch are out again. The offense makes up for most of it at 29.75 points a game, a top-five mark, which is how all four Lions games have landed over 54.5 (61, 72, 55 and 58 points). We still won't pay for the Over six points late, because it needs Arizona to hold up its end. Jacoby Brissett starts behind a line that lost left tackle Paris Johnson for the season and has right guard Isaiah Adams out. Marvin Harrison Jr. will be inactive while the team finalizes a trade, per multiple reports. And Detroit's pass rush has 15 sacks in four games.

We'd rather own the half of the shootout we trust, which is Jared Goff throwing. He does it whether the Lions lead or trail, and Arizona has allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt (gross, with sack yardage left in), the worst mark in the league through four weeks, along with 11 touchdown passes. It doesn't jump out of their per-game yardage only because opponents have thrown just 27 passes a game against them. Safety Andrew Wingard is out with a knee injury, too. So both picks are Lions pass catchers. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on FOX at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. Inactives are not out yet.

Lions vs. Cardinals Predictions

• Pick #1: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (-112)
• Pick #2: Isaac TeSlaa Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (-112)

What we like about Gibbs is that the score doesn't seem to matter. He caught five passes in a 31-30 win over New Orleans and seven in a 31-24 win over the Jets, a game in which Goff threw only 32 times. In between he caught six in the 41-31 loss at Buffalo.

The full line reads 5, 6, 7 and 4 catches on 5, 8, 8 and 7 targets. That's 22 of 28 (79%), with at least seven targets in each of the last three games, and he has played 74%, 83%, 69% and 87% of the snaps. The miss came last week at Carolina, four catches on seven targets on a night Goff threw 52 times, so volume wasn't the problem. Seven targets at his catch rate is five or six catches. He just landed on the wrong side of that.

You're paying -112, which works out to 52.8%, and there are honest reasons it isn't shorter. His worst game sits under the number, and four games is a thin history. Arizona has allowed only eight catches to running backs all season, though the one real receiving back it has seen, Christian McCaffrey, caught four of five targets for 41 yards. A Detroit lead can also push his work to the ground. He carried 29 times against New Orleans and 20 against the Jets, and he still caught five and seven in those games.

PICK #2: Isaac TeSlaa Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Arizona is last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 9.1, and the damage comes in chunks. Brock Purdy threw for 297 yards on 27 attempts against the Cardinals, Drew Lock 235 on 26, Jameis Winston 250 on 29. Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored on an 82-yard catch, and the Giants hit gains of 40 and 39 yards last week. Wingard played every defensive snap in Weeks 1 through 3 before leaving early in Week 4, and now he's out.

TeSlaa is the Lion who has been hitting those. He has gone for 0, 26, 66 and 95 yards on 1, 5, 3 and 8 targets, clearing this line three straight times. His nine catches have covered 187 yards, 20.8 apiece, with long gains of 20, 49 and 57 in the last three games. He played 82% of the snaps at Carolina, a season high, after 68%, 75% and 48%. One deep catch can get him past 24.5.

This is the shakier of our two picks, and at -114 (an implied 53.3%) it is no bargain. TeSlaa is the fifth option in the offense behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams and Gibbs, and his receptions line is only 2.5. Five of his eight targets at Carolina came in the fourth quarter with Detroit behind. In the Jets win he played 48% of the snaps and saw three targets, and he got home only because one of them went for 49 yards. If the Lions lead comfortably he may see two or three targets again. Both picks need Goff to keep throwing, and he has attempted at least 32 passes in every game so far.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.