Lions vs 49ers NFL Week 17 MNF picks

It’s the league’s penultimate week, Week 17, and there are playoff implications seemingly at every turn in almost every matchup. This one on Monday Night Football is no different for one team as the 13-2 Detroit Lions head west to take on the 6-9 San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers are eliminated from playoff contention, the Lions are trying to keep pace with the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North standings and the top seed in the NFC.

Can the 49ers play spoiler and shake up the NFC? Let’s dive into our Lions vs 49ers MNF picks and best bets.

Lions vs 49ers Predictions

Pick #1: Detroit Lions -3.5 (-102) vs San Francisco 49ers

Pick #2: Under 50.5 Points (-110)

Pick #3: Jameson Williams Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Pick #1: Lions -3.5 vs 49ers (-110)

We’ll begin our Lions vs 49ers MNF picks by taking the Lions as a relatively slim 3.5-point road favorite. The 49ers are reeling, but they’ve shown flashes of the team they’ve been in years past, which explains the line being so low against the Lions. While the Lions have been dominant on offense this season with the third-highest offensive EPA per play, they have lost pieces on defense, making them a bit vulnerable. That vulnerability has kept opposing teams in games as they’ve been shootouts with the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills before putting foot to throat last week against the Bears on the road.

The 49ers may be able to keep some pace in the passing game, but they’ve been a shell of their former selves this season as they’ve lost five of their last six games. They’ve been ravaged by injury, especially at running back, where they ran out fifth-string back Patrick Taylor Jr. as their starter following injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and others. The 49ers have averaged just 16 points per game in their last six. The Lions should win here, and the line isn’t prohibitive at all, so we’ll take Detroit -3.5 (-102) to get out ahead and stay ahead of San Francisco.

Pick #2: Lions vs 49ers Under 50.5 Points (-110)

The next pick in our Lions vs 49ers MNF picks is taking the Under, set at 50.5 points. We’ve highlighted the offensive woes for the 49ers, but they did look more like themselves last week, with Deebo Samuel seemingly coming out of a weeks-long hibernation to put up 121 total yards and a touchdown. To illustrate just how bad Samuel has been, he hadn’t eclipsed the total yards he put up in Week 16 in his previous five weeks combined (116). The 49ers have put up a combined 23 points against the Rams and Dolphins; not exactly world-beating defenses.

The Lions may be banged up, but the engine that makes the Lions go is still intact, and that’s Jahmyr Gibbs and the run game despite a David Montgomery injury. That’s also a passing game with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and a host of other contributors. We know what the Lions are capable of on offense, but on the road in what should still be a hostile game environment at Levi’s Stadium, the game total should be comfortably Under 50.5 Points (-110) for MNF.

Pick #3: Jameson Williams Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Our Lions vs 49ers best bet for Monday Night Football is on Detroit’s electric wide receiver, Jameson Williams. The Alabama product has been the transformative piece that has turned the Lions’ offense from good to great this season. Having Williams as a locked-in regular contributor in his third season has been the key and gives Detroit a downfield element they haven’t had with any sort of consistency in years past.

Williams has eclipsed the 53.5 receiving yards total in four of his last six games, and if the 49ers happen to be able to push the Lions’ depleted defense, it’s going to be even better for Williams to take a long play and crush this receiving prop. We know he can do it on one play, and he did just last week with an 82-yard touchdown grab in the second quarter against the Bears.

Williams has four other plays of 50+ yards this season, and that ties the league lead of 50+ yard plays by a wide receiver with Terry McLaurin and Brian Thomas Jr. The Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115) prop seems very low, and we’ll happily take that for Monday Night Football.