Lightning vs. Rangers Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/13)

Fact checked at 5:40 AM ET, Oct 13, 2026

Odds as of Oct 13, 5:19 AM ET

Igor Shesterkin is done for the season, and the betting market has moved hard toward Tampa Bay. He hurt his right knee in Friday's 3-1 loss at Washington, and the Rangers ruled him out for the year on Saturday. Dylan Garand, 24, takes over. New York put him on waivers before the season and nobody claimed him, yet he has been sharp in the little he has played: a 22-save shutout at Detroit on Oct. 2, 11 saves in relief of Shesterkin on Friday and 19 saves in Sunday's 6-2 win over Vancouver. He has six NHL games in his career. Tampa Bay opened at -125 on Sunday and is -164 at the consensus now, with the Rangers at +135. The total went from 5.5 to 6, though some books still hang 5.5.

Both teams arrive in form. Tampa Bay is 4-1-0 and has won four straight, most recently 5-3 at the Islanders on Saturday behind a Brandon Hagel hat trick. New York is 5-2-0 and 4-0 at home, and it beat the Lightning 5-1 at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 1. Nikita Kucherov scored Tampa Bay's only goal that night.

Puck drop is 7:15 PM ET at Madison Square Garden, on MSG and The Spot locally and ESPN+ nationally. Neither starter is confirmed; Andrei Vasilevskiy and Garand are expected.

We want Tampa Bay's top line against a goalie this green, and that line runs through Kucherov. He also quarterbacks the first power-play unit, and his playmaking this season looks a lot like what he did all of last year. It is a one-pick night: nothing else on the board cleared our bar, and we'd rather not double up on Kucherov.

Lightning vs. Rangers Predictions

• Pick #1: Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (+130)

PICK #1: Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (+130)

Three straight two-point nights, all on a pair of assists, against Philadelphia, Minnesota and the Islanders. Kucherov has 8 points in five games (1 goal, 7 assists), and the longer record says this is normal for him: he had two or more points in 40 of 76 games last season, a little over half. The +130 price puts him at 43.5%. We'll take plus money on something he did more often than not.

He skates on the top line with Brayden Point and Gage Goncalves and on the first power-play unit, according to Tampa Bay's lines from Saturday's game, and his ice time has run from 17:46 to 24:07. That is a lot of time against Garand, and the moneyline has moved 39 cents Tampa Bay's way since Sunday's open.

The risk is real. Garand has stopped 52 of 55 shots this season, and a team that just lost its starter can tighten up in front of the kid. Kucherov managed one point in the Oct. 1 loss at the Garden. Tampa Bay also hasn't posted tonight's lines, so the Saturday combinations are the latest available.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.