Lakers vs Thunder NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks

Lakers vs Thunder NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks

The second set of Western Conference Semifinals kick off tonight as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers. While the Lakers showed immense resilience by dispatching the Houston Rockets in six games, they are walking into a building that has been a house of horrors for them this season. Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with the broadcast airing on NBC and Peacock.

The narrative heading into this series is dominated by one staggering statistic: the Thunder swept the Lakers 4-0 in the regular season in dismantling fashion. With Luka Doncic still sidelined with a hamstring strain and the Thunder coming off a full week of rest after sweeping Phoenix, the uphill climb for LeBron James and company looks steeper than ever.

Lakers vs Thunder Game 1 Predictions

Pick #1: OKC Thunder -15.5 over LA Lakers (-110)

Pick #2: Over 213.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Isaiah Joe Over 6.5 Points (-105)

PICK #1: Thunder -15.5 over Lakers (-110) 

Lay the points. While a 15.5-point spread in the second round of the NBA playoffs feels astronomical, in four meetings this season, the Thunder won by an average point differential of 29.3 points, the largest gap between two same-conference teams in the league this year.

In the Lakers’ first-round series against Houston, they averaged 9.2 fewer shot opportunities per game than the Rockets, which was the worst discrepancy in the first round. Against an OKC team that ranked first in turnover rate, second in offensive rebounding and fourth in opponent turnover rate in the first round, the Lakers will likely lose the possession game again. Without Doncic to stabilize the half-court offense, the Lakers don't have the firepower to keep pace with an OKC team that led the league in scoring margin.

PICK #2: Over 213.5 (-110) 

I don’t think there’s any way the Thunder don’t score at least 120 points at home in Game 1. The Thunder went 4-for-4 against the Suns in scoring 119+ and 4-for-4 against the Lakers in the regular season in scoring 119+. 

The Lakers’ transition defence has been a major liability, allowing 14.8 fastbreak points per game in the postseason, which is the second-worst mark among remaining teams. Oklahoma City thrives in these scenarios, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander operating at an MVP level (33.8 PPG in the first round). 

While the Lakers rank fourth in postseason defensive rating after the first round, they played a discombobulated and mostly offensively challenged Rockets team in the opening round. Also, the Lakers ranked just 20th in defensive rating in the regular season.

We saw the game totals in the Lakers vs Rockets series take a downturn when the Rockets’ defense adjusted to take away the perimeter from the Lakers, but the Thunder make it a point to take away the paint while leaving their terrific perimeter defenders on an island. I think J.J. Reddick can scheme open enough perimeter shots for the Lakers to pull their weight in sending this game over the point total. 

PICK #3: Isaiah Joe Over 6.5 Points (-105) 

While stars like SGA and Chet Holmgren get the headlines, Isaiah Joe has been a certified Lakers-killer. In four games against Los Angeles this season, Joe averaged 19.5 points per game (his highest mark against any team this year) while shooting 57.1% from the field.

Joe is a rhythm shooter who thrives on rest. This season, when playing on three or more days of rest, he shot 61.1% from deep and averaged a season-high 15 PPG. Having had an entire week off since the Thunder swept the Suns, with the Lakers' defence likely selling out to stop SGA and the rest of the starting five, Joe will find himself with wide-open looks from the perimeter, where he has punished LA all year.