Kings vs. Pelicans Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Somebody leaves Smoothie King Center with a first win tonight. Sacramento and New Orleans are both 0-4, and tip-off is 8:00 PM ET. The Kings score 107.8 points a game and give up 125.5, one of the worst defensive marks in the league. Every opponent has scored at least 121 on them. New Orleans scores 116.3 and allows 122, and it is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 104-91 home loss to Denver.

Our read: New Orleans scores freely against a Kings defense missing two of its centers, Zion Williamson gets his points inside, and the game clears the total. Both picks cash in that game.

Sacramento's latest injury report has Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud, Ben Simmons and two-way guard Sean Pedulla out. Murray started the first two games and has missed the last two, and none of the others have played this season, so the Kings' numbers already reflect most of that list. New Orleans hadn't filed its report when we checked, which is common on the back end of a back-to-back. Yves Missi hasn't played since he was hurt against Utah, and Jordan Poole, who left the Denver game with an ankle injury, is listed day-to-day.

New Orleans is -5.5 (-115), Sacramento is +5.5 (-105), and the Pelicans are -230 on the moneyline. The total opened at 237.5 and has slipped to 236.5.

Kings vs. Pelicans Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 236.5 (-112)
• Pick #2: Zion Williamson Over 21.5 Points (-103)

PICK #1: Over 236.5 (-112)

Nobody has scored fewer than 121 against Sacramento. The Clippers got 121, Portland 128, Memphis 123 and San Antonio 130, and the Spurs had 80 of theirs by halftime. Cardwell and Raynaud are still out, so the same rotation that gave up those totals takes the floor again. New Orleans has the scoring to take advantage. It put up 120, 119 and 135 in its first three games. Three of its four games went over 236.5, including a 141-135 overtime loss in Denver.

The Over at -112 implies a 52.8% chance. The total has dropped a point since it opened, so Over bettors are getting a slightly better number than they had.

The case against sits in Sacramento's own games. Only the 128-120 loss to Portland went over 236.5, though the 123-112 loss to Memphis landed at 235. The Kings managed just 96 against the Clippers and 103 in San Antonio. New Orleans' last game finished at 195, and the Pelicans scored 18 in both the first and fourth quarters. Pool both teams and 4 of 8 games went over this number, with only four games apiece to go on. Tired legs are the real risk. On the second night of a back-to-back, this can turn into a slow game.

PICK #2: Zion Williamson Over 21.5 Points (-103)

Williamson has scored 22, 23, 17 and 25, clearing 21.5 three times in four games, and he has played 32 or 33 minutes every night. His 25 against Denver came on 10-of-14 shooting.

The matchup is Sacramento's front line. Without Cardwell and Raynaud, the Kings have fewer bodies to throw at a forward who does most of his work in the paint. Victor Wembanyama put up 29 points and 10 rebounds on this same group in San Antonio's 130-103 win. Williamson doesn't need that kind of night, only something better than his 17 in Denver.

At -103 the Over implies 50.7%, the Under is -124, and the line has gone up a point since it opened. Four games is a small sample. The schedule is the bigger worry: New Orleans hasn't filed its report, Williamson played 32 minutes against Denver, and a rest or minutes decision would change this bet. If he plays his usual minutes, 22 points belongs in the same high-scoring game as the Over.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.