Kings vs. Islanders Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/22)

Fact checked at 8:56 AM ET, Oct 22, 2026

Odds as of Oct 22, 8:54 AM ET

The Los Angeles Kings finally have a win. They beat Washington 5-2 on Tuesday to open a five-game road trip and climb to 1-4-2, but they had scored one goal in each of the four games before that. They average 2.43 goals per game, 28th in the league, in their first season since Anze Kopitar retired. Kevin Fiala is out injured, and center Quinton Byfield is day-to-day after leaving Tuesday's game in the first period with an upper-body injury. He didn't skate Wednesday.

The New York Islanders are 5-3-1, 4-1-0 at home, and have won two straight. They allow 2.22 goals per game, fourth-fewest in the league, and 25.3 shots per game. Semyon Varlamov starts in place of Ilya Sorokin (5-2-0, .934 save percentage, 1.72 goals-against average). Varlamov, 38, is 0-1-1 with a .902 save percentage in two appearances, his first games since November 2024. The Kings' starter, Darcy Kuemper or Anton Forsberg, is unconfirmed.

The Islanders are -115 on the moneyline and the Kings -105, with the total at 5.5 (Over -105, Under -115). Puck drops Thursday at 7:30 PM ET at UBS Arena.

We think the Islanders' defense holds a short-handed Kings attack to two goals or fewer in a low-event game. Both picks cash on that script, and the first is the most direct way to bet it.

Kings vs. Islanders Predictions

• Pick #1: Kings Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
• Pick #2: Under 5.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Kings Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

Two numbers make this case. The Kings have scored two or fewer in four of their seven games, and the Islanders have held seven of their nine opponents to two or fewer. Only the Rangers and Tampa Bay have gotten more than two against them. Most of that came with Sorokin in net, though: he allowed 12 goals in seven appearances.

Tuesday's five goals in Washington came on 26 shots. Before that, the Kings scored once apiece against Florida, Vegas, Edmonton and Boston. This wasn't a high-powered group even with Kopitar: the Kings averaged 2.68 goals per game last season. Now Fiala is out, and if Byfield sits too, Peter Laviolette has to reshuffle a center group that already lost its captain.

At +110, the price implies 47.6%, and both teams' records say the Kings stay under three more often than that.

It isn't risk-free. The Kings are getting pucks to the net, 29.3 shots per game, and are shooting just 8.3%, so a night when a few more go in wouldn't be shocking. Sorokin isn't playing, and Varlamov allowed three goals on 22 shots in his first game back. Books also settle team totals differently once a game goes past regulation, on overtime goals as well as the shootout, so a 2-2 game that goes to extra time could settle either way.

PICK #2: Under 5.5 (-115)

Islanders games don't tend to get loose. They allow 25.3 shots a game and take 24.9, and they score 3.00 goals per game, 18th in the league. Six of their nine games have stayed under 5.5, along with four of the Kings' seven: 10 of 16 combined.

Goaltending still tilts it, though less than it would have with Sorokin. Varlamov is at .902, while Kuemper is at .869 and Forsberg at .883 for Los Angeles. Against a Kings attack ranked 28th, we expect something in the 3-1 or 3-2 range, and the money on the total leans the same way: 72% of it is on the Under, from 57% of the bets. The -115 price implies 53.5%.

The total counts the whole game. Overtime goals count, and a shootout adds one goal to the winner's score, so a 2-2 game decided in a shootout ends with five and still stays under.

What could sink it is the Kings' own net. Los Angeles allows 3.86 goals per game, 29th, and its first two games went 8-4 in Colorado and 5-4 in overtime in San Jose. If the Islanders put four past a team save percentage of .860 and the Kings answer with two, this goes over. Like the first pick, it now rests on Varlamov rather than Sorokin, which makes it riskier.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.