Kentucky vs. NC State Prediction, Women's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:17 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:06 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

No. 14 Kentucky (2-0) and No. 25 NC State (2-0) meet in Charlotte, a neutral site, at 3:00 PM ET. Kentucky is a 5.5-point favorite and the total sits at 136.5. Kentucky's defense has smothered two overmatched opponents, but its offense hasn't made shots, and a rebuilt lineup hasn't played anyone like NC State. The Wolfpack bring back two All-ACC First Team seniors and can defend too. Our read is a close game with points hard to find, and both picks need exactly that.

Kentucky vs. NC State Predictions

• Pick #1: NC State +5.5 (-118)
• Pick #2: Under 136.5 (-118)

PICK #1: NC State +5.5 (-118)

Kentucky's shooting is the problem. Against Morehead State and Northern Kentucky the Wildcats made 61 of 155 shots (39.4%) and 14 of 58 threes (24.1%), and against Northern Kentucky they grabbed 28 offensive rebounds while making 27 field goals. Three of the five who started both games, Diana Collins, Me'Arah O'Neal and Ajša Sivka, are new to the program, because Kentucky lost three starters from last season to the WNBA Draft.

NC State's two best players are back. Zoe Brooks averages 19.5 points and 5.5 assists, Khamil Pierre averages 18.0 points and 11.0 rebounds, and both made All-ACC First Team last season. As a team NC State is shooting 48.9% and has 27 steals in two games. Every number on both sides comes from blowouts of low-major teams, so our case rests on the proven pair against a group still looking for its offense.

At -118 the price implies a 54.1% chance, and one tempo-free rating system has Kentucky winning by barely more than a point. Size is the risk. Kentucky starts three 6-5 players in Clara Strack, Sivka and O'Neal, pulls down 54.5 rebounds a game to NC State's 44.0, and Strack blocks 5.0 shots a game. At least one model has Kentucky by six, and if the Wildcats own the glass the way they did against Northern Kentucky, they can win by more than 5.5.

PICK #2: Under 136.5 (-118)

Kentucky's 82 points a game came on 76 and 79 shots, many of them second chances off offensive rebounds. NC State won't allow that many attempts, and a team shooting 39% without the extra chances scores in the 60s. The same tempo-free rating projects a combined score under this total.

Both defenses have been stingy. Kentucky has allowed 70 points in two games, its fewest to open a season since 1974-75; opponents made 23 of 99 shots, and neither scored more than four points in the first quarter. NC State has allowed 47.5 a game on 31.4% shooting. All four games went under 136.5, though against Morehead State, Northern Kentucky, Wofford and Campbell that record means less than it looks.

The Under at -118 carries a 54.1% implied probability. NC State's transition game can blow it up: the Wolfpack scored 28 and 31 fast-break points and forced 20 steals against Campbell. Kentucky has turned it over only eight and 10 times, so it hasn't been handing out those runouts.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.