Kansas State vs. Arizona State Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:06 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:04 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Kansas State (4-2) will most likely play at Arizona State without Avery Johnson. The Wildcats downgraded their quarterback to doubtful on Friday night's availability report with a neck and shoulder injury from an awkward fall against Kansas. Johnson has started 32 straight games, ran for 132 yards in last week's 35-24 win over Kansas and 152 against Tulane, and has thrown all but six of Kansas State's 193 passes this season. His likely replacement, fifth-year senior Jacob Knuth, has never started a college game. Arizona State (3-3) is changing quarterbacks too, by choice: Kenny Dillingham named Mikey Keene the starter after Keene replaced Cutter Boley at halftime of last week's 53-25 loss at Texas Tech.

Kickoff is 3:45 PM ET at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe. Kansas State is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5, down from 3.5 and 56.5 early in the week.

Kansas State vs. Arizona State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 52.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Arizona State Moneyline (+100)

PICK #1: Under 52.5 (-110)

Without Johnson, Kansas State's offense shrinks to its running backs. Expect Collin Klein to hand off to Joe Jackson and Rodney Fields and keep Knuth's throws short. That means long drives, a running clock and fewer possessions for both teams. Kansas State leaned on the run last week even with Johnson, and Jackson carried 27 times for 159 yards against Kansas.

Arizona State can't speed things up on the ground. The Sun Devils have averaged 2.6 yards per carry in three Big 12 games, sacks included, and Keene isn't a runner. They haven't scored more than 30 points in any of their last five games (20, 24, 19, 30 and 25). Keene threw for 256 yards in one half at Texas Tech, but that came with Arizona State down 33 at halftime against a defense playing with a big lead.

The total has dropped four points from early in the week, and -110 puts the break-even at 52.4%. We think a game with a first-time starter on one side, a new starter on the other and a lot of handoffs lands under more often than that.

The risk is Arizona State's run defense. Big 12 opponents have run for 6.0 yards a carry and 227.7 yards a game against the Sun Devils, and Kansas State ran for 359 yards against Kansas. If the Wildcats break long runs instead of grinding out drives, the points come quickly. Arizona State has also allowed 48, 55 and 53 points in its three losses, and defensive backs Lyrik Rawls and Jalen Williams are listed as out.

PICK #2: Arizona State Moneyline (+100)

Even money implies a 50% chance that Arizona State wins. We think the real number is higher. The computer models we track, built on games Johnson played, have Kansas State by about five points, and the line opened at Kansas State -3.5. Taking a 32-game starter out for a quarterback who has thrown a handful of college passes should be worth more than the two points the line has moved.

This is also Kansas State's second road game of the season. The first was a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati, with Johnson. Arizona State's two wins in its last five were the kind of game this one projects to be: 24-17 over Kansas in London and 30-12 over Hawaii. Keene, a sixth-year quarterback, gives the Sun Devils the more experienced passer.

Most previews lean Kansas State, and the reasons are real. Arizona State lost by 28, 36 and 28 to Texas A&M, Baylor and Texas Tech, and Kansas State's backs can run at this defense with or without Johnson. The pick also depends on Johnson sitting. He is listed as doubtful, not out, and the final availability report comes out before kickoff.

Both picks come from the same game: Johnson out, Kansas State grinding on the ground, and Arizona State winning a low-scoring game at home.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.