Jets vs Patriots NFL Week 11 TNF Best Picks

Jets vs Patriots NFL Week 11 TNF Best Picks

Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL campaign is an AFC East battle between the New York Jets and New England Patriots. It has been a tale of two very different seasons for these division rivals, as the Jets are saddled with a 2-7 record while the Patriots are top of the standings at 8-2. With Thursday’s contest set for 8:15 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the Jets vs Patriots best bets to make. 

Jets vs Patriots TNF Predictions 

Pick #1: New York Jets +11.5 over New England Patriots (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-110) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Jets +11.5 over Patriots (-110) Click Here to Bet

Break up the Jets! They are never going to be confused with being a great team, but they are putting in a commendable effort in the midst of a lost season and have won two games in a row. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s outfit followed up a thrilling 39-38 victory over Cincinnati in Week 9 by beating Cleveland 27-20 this past weekend. DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner got shipped out prior to the trade deadline, but the defense actually looked pretty good – if not even improved – against the Browns.

Cleveland’s offense was held to an anemic four yards per play. There is nothing bad to say about the Patriots, but the bottom line is that this 11.5 number is too big for a Thursday night division-rivalry showdown between two teams that obviously know each other inside and out. 

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-115) Click Here to Bet

Unless it’s the Bengals, teams playing on short weeks tend to play ugly, low-scoring slogs on Thursday night. This one may be no exception, in part because the weather is expected to be cold and windy in Foxborough – not ideal conditions for offensive football. The under also correlates nicely with the Jets covering the spread, because they almost certainly can’t keep up with the Patriots if this contest turns into a shootout. After all, New York ranks no better than No. 26 league-wide in EPA per pass, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. It is dead last in passing offense (1,526 total yards). There is no reason to think that anything will change against New England, which ranks top five defensively in all of those aforementioned categories.

Although the Jets’ defense is not only underwhelming but also depleted, the guys who are still in the building played impressively hard last weekend following the trade deadline. They sacked Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel six times. If they can get that kind of pressure on Patriots QB Drake Maye, their defense could be in business. 

PICK #3: Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-110) Click Here to Bet

Although the Jets may be able to make this contest more competitive than many expect, we still have to appreciate that the Patriots will likely be playing with a lead most of the way – perhaps even the entire way. If the home side seizes a quick upper hand, it can keep the clock moving with a steady diet of running plays rather than having Maye sling the ball all over the field.

Against this particular opponent, featuring the ground game would also make sense for New England regardless of what the scoreboard says. New York is No. 25 in the NFL against the run, giving up 138.2 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. It is No. 8 against the pass, limiting teams to just 190.8 yards per contest on 6.8 yards per attempt. It’s also worth noting that Maye has thrown an interception in three straight games, so the Patriots may not want to mess around with too much passing – especially if they are playing ahead.