Jets vs Dolphins NFL Week 4 MNF Picks

Jets vs Dolphins NFL Week 4 MNF Picks

Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season will conclude with a Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the Miami Dolphins play host to the New York Jets in a matchup between winless teams in the AFC East at 7:15 pm ET. Both of these teams are struggling mightily, but this game represents a chance for each side to get off the mat and build on their encouraging, close losses a week ago.

Which team will come out on top and pick up their first win of the season? Let’s get into our Jets vs Dolphins best bets for MNF.

Jets vs Dolphins Predictions

• Pick #1: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-120) vs. New York Jets Click Here to Bet
• Pick #2: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) Click Here to Bet
• Pick #3: Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-120) vs. New York Jets

While they lost to the Bills last week, the Dolphins were pretty impressive in keeping the game close and covering the spread on the road. That should give us some confidence in backing Mike McDaniel’s team tonight. 

Miami still profiles as a poor passing offense to this point, but the Dolphins should be able to see more success this time around against a Jets defense that allows 11.1 yards per pass completion on the season. New York has also surrendered at least 30 points the last two times they visited Hard Rock Stadium, so there is proof of concept for the Dolphins to attack this group. 

On the ground, Miami is racking up 5.2 yards per carry (third in the NFL), and the Jets run defense can be had, as we’ve seen in recent games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay. On the other side of the ball, Justin Fields is set to return to the lineup following a concussion, but this Jets passing game inspires no confidence when he’s under center, so let’s trust in the Miami defense to bottle down the New York offense in this one. 

PICK #2: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110)

The Dolphins have traditionally been a team involved in higher-scoring games in recent years, but the Under is actually our preferred side in this contest. Despite Miami looking more like its old self against the Bills a week ago, the Dolphins still gained under 300 total yards against a Bills defense that has shown itself to be one of the weaker units among playoff teams through the first month.

As for the visitors, the Jets have serious problems throughout their offensive operation, which should continue to rear its ugly head on the road with Fields adjusting back to game speed following a few games off due to injury. Given the evidence we’ve seen from both teams this season, the Under is the only way we can look.

PICK #3: Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

While the Jets' passing attack is suspect at best, running back Breece Hall should be able to have success on the ground on Monday after a couple of difficult weeks. 

What’s most encouraging for Hall is that the Dolphins’ run defense is extremely poor, as Miami ranks 28th in rushing defense, 31st in EPA per rush, and 32nd in success rate allowed per SumerSports. Given the fact that Miami has allowed opposing running backs to rush for 71, 54, and 108 yards respectively over the previous three weeks, there’s some value in taking the Jets starter out of the backfield to clear his rushing prop for the second time this season.