Jets vs. Bears Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:30 AM ET

Chicago is on its second straight week without Caleb Williams, and the number already reflects that. The Bears have been roughly 3-point favorites since Sep 28 and now lay 3.5 (-110), with the Jets at +3.5 (-109). Price histories show a much bigger Chicago number early in the week, which is why this looks like a huge move. The moneyline is Bears -190, Jets +155, and the total is 43.5. Williams (hamstring) is out again and left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve. Officially, the Bears have said only that Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum will start; multiple reports say Bagent. That comes after Keenum beat Philadelphia 27-7 on Monday night, a game that also leaves Chicago with under six days of rest to New York's seven.

The Jets (1-2) have dropped two in a row, 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay and 31-24 at Detroit. Running back Breece Hall, receiver Adonai Mitchell, tight end Mason Taylor and guard Dylan Parham are all out, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq is questionable. With Chicago's quarterback unsettled and a new left tackle protecting him, these picks go after a Bears tight end's small role, the Jets' passer and Chicago's lead back. Inactives are not out yet. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Soldier Field on FOX, with sun, about 70 degrees, a 10 mph northwest wind and no rain in the forecast.

Jets vs. Bears Predictions

• Pick #1: Colston Loveland Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Geno Smith Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-112)
• Pick #3: D'Andre Swift Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

PICK #1: Colston Loveland Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Loveland has not reached this line yet. He has 0, 1 and 4 catches for 0, 3 and 31 yards on 2, 3 and 4 targets, which is 8% to 12% of Chicago's looks, even though he plays 79% to 87% of the offensive snaps. His best game came with Keenum at quarterback, and it still fell short.

The matchup doesn't help him. The Jets allow 171 net passing yards a game, third fewest in the league: 127 to Tennessee, 136 to Green Bay and 250 to Detroit, the only team that has really thrown on them. Loveland is the listed starter with no injury tag, so expect his usual snaps and a handful of targets. Getting to 35 yards at the 7.8 a catch he managed in Week 3 means four or five receptions.

What could go wrong is the quarterback, and the protection in front of him. Bagent or Keenum may lean on the tight end more than Williams did. With Jones on injured reserve and Theo Benedet at left tackle, quicker throws are one way to keep the passer clean, and those throws can find Loveland. His targets have also gone up every week, and Bagent has thrown only nine passes this season, so there is less to go on if he starts. Skip it if Loveland is inactive. Loveland Under 3.5 Receptions (-127) is the related option, at a steeper price. These pick prices come from the morning prop board at 7:34 AM ET, and -114 implies a 53.3% chance. The pick also fits with Swift's Over: a Chicago game built on the run means fewer throws.

PICK #2: Geno Smith Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Smith is averaging 261 passing yards a game, so this line asks for less than his norm. He has thrown for 215, 247 and 321 on 24, 41 and 37 attempts, and he hasn't missed an offensive snap. The Jets complete 75.5% of their passes, the best rate of any team.

The 321 came at Detroit without Mitchell and Taylor, and neither plays today. With Hall out, the run game gives New York very little: 3.3 yards a carry as a team, 30th, and 3.2 for Braelon Allen on his 19 carries. When the Jets lost, they threw 41 and 37 times. When they won, it was 24. On the other side, Chicago allows 207 net passing yards a game, 12th fewest, and it has done that without cornerback Kyler Gordon, linebacker Noah Sewell and lineman Shemar Turner, who are all out again. The one big day against the Bears was 353 net yards at Carolina in a 59-37 shootout that Chicago's own offense helped create.

Smith has been sacked 4 and 5 times the last two weeks, and that's a real threat to the yardage. So is low volume. Chicago's two quiet games against the pass were 127 net yards to Minnesota in a 9-3 Vikings win and 141 to Philadelphia in a 27-7 Bears win, on 20 and 26 attempts. Smith wants a close game where the Jets keep throwing. A Chicago blowout is not it. At -112, the implied chance is 52.8%.

Garrett Wilson Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114) is the same bet in another form. He has 79, 57 and 107 yards, but his 13 targets (36% of the team's) came in the only game without both Mitchell and Taylor; in Week 2 he had 7 of 36, and Sadiq, questionable today, took 8 targets last week. We like Smith more. The two win or lose together, and if Wilson is inactive, drop both.

PICK #3: D'Andre Swift Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Whoever plays quarterback, Swift gets the ball. He carried 18, 16 and 20 times for 124, 45 and 84 yards on 57%, 68% and 69% of the snaps, clearing 65.5 twice, and he has had at least 19 carries plus targets every week.

Week 3 is the closest match for today. With Keenum starting, Chicago ran 35 times for 128 yards: Swift had 20 of those carries for 84 yards (4.2 a carry) and Kyle Monangai 10 for 31. The Jets allow 87.3 rushing yards a game, seventh fewest, but that comes on only 20.7 carries faced per game, and they give up 4.2 yards a carry, 18th fewest. Twenty carries would be more work than this defense usually sees. Benedet, starting at left tackle for Jones, is generally rated better as a run blocker than in pass protection. Swift sat out Thursday's practice with a knee issue, went full on Friday and has no game status.

Bagent is the worry. He has no starts this season and went 5 of 9 for 54 yards in relief, and a defense can stack the box if it doesn't fear the quarterback. If Keenum starts, Week 3 is the blueprint; with Bagent, the game plan should look the same, but each carry may be harder. Swift needs about 14 carries at his 4.7 a carry, and he has had 16 to 20; falling behind early would cut into that. If he's inactive, the bet is normally void, and Monangai Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114) is the backup option. The -109 price implies a 52.2% chance. In any game Chicago controls, Swift and Loveland's Under go together. Smith's Over only lines up with Swift in a close game: a Chicago blowout cashes Swift and hurts Smith, and a Jets lead does the opposite.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.