Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:54 AM ET

Both teams come in 2-1, and nobody in the league has allowed fewer points per game than Jacksonville: 36 in three games, or 12 a game. That came against Cleveland, Denver and New England, offenses that average between 12 and about 20 points a game, so the Jaguars haven't faced one like Cincinnati's yet. They beat Cleveland 34-10, lost 20-13 at Denver and hammered New England 35-6. Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay 33-27 and Houston 20-6, two teams that are now 0-3, then lost 30-27 at Pittsburgh. Lawrence and Burrow are both expected to start, and neither is on an injury report.

Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favorite at -115, Jacksonville +2.5 at -105, with the moneyline at Bengals -143 and Jaguars +120. The total is 51.5 at -111 both ways. Neither the spread nor the total has moved off its opening number. Those are consensus prices as of 7:54 AM ET.

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, on CBS, and the forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, about 71 degrees, a light north wind and no rain. The Bengals have ruled out safety Kyle Dugger and receiver Colbie Young, and slot cornerback Jalen Davis is on injured reserve. Safety Bryan Cook, defensive tackle B.J. Hill, guard Dalton Risner and linebacker Swayze Bozeman are questionable; Hill has missed the last two games. Jacksonville lists cornerbacks Montaric Brown and Christian Braswell and defensive tackle Albert Regis as questionable. Inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff and aren't posted yet. Cook is the one to watch for both picks: Dugger filled in for him in Week 3, and Dugger won't be there this time.

Jaguars vs. Bengals Predictions

• Pick #1: Parker Washington Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 51.5 (-111)

PICK #1: Parker Washington Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Cincinnati gives up 260 net passing yards a game, and only four teams allow more. Washington leads the Jaguars in receiving yards.

His logs follow the opponent. He went for 83 yards on 6 targets against Cleveland and 98 on 12 at Denver, two defenses in the bottom third against the pass. Against New England, a top-six pass defense, he caught 3 of 5 targets for 40. The Bengals grade out worse than all three, and they're now missing Davis in the slot and Dugger at safety, with Cook questionable. His role looks secure too: against the Patriots he and Jakobi Meyers each played 50 of 62 snaps, while Brian Thomas Jr. played 23. Jacksonville's coach put that down to more two-tight-end sets and specific jobs for Josh Cameron.

What worries me is volume. Lawrence has thrown just 23, 29 and 29 passes, and Washington's targets swing with the score: 5 in the 35-6 win, 12 in the 20-13 loss. His three-game average, about 74 yards, actually sits below this line. Meyers is off the injury report after a full Friday practice and saw 8 targets last week. At -110 (a 52.4% implied chance, the prop price as of 7:59 AM ET), I still like the over against this secondary.

Want a bigger payout? Washington to score a touchdown is +130; he found the end zone against Cleveland and New England. This pick and the Under can cash together, the way the Denver game played out (33 total points, 98 yards for Washington in a loss). They only fight each other if Jacksonville jumps out to a big lead and stops throwing.

PICK #2: Under 51.5 (-111)

None of the six games these teams have played closed with a total this high. Those closing numbers ran from 40.5 to 50.5, and only two of the six games finished above 51.5, both involving Cincinnati: 60 points against Tampa Bay and 57 at Pittsburgh. Jacksonville's games ended with 44, 33 and 41.

Jacksonville also plays at a crawl. The Jaguars have run 32, 24 and 30 times while throwing 23, 29 and 29 passes, which keeps the clock moving. Their 12 points allowed per game is the best of the 32 teams, ahead of Minnesota at 13.7. I won't oversell it. That number came against weak offenses, Cincinnati scores 26.7 a game (12th), and the Jaguars allow about 236 net passing yards a game, 24th. This is a points case, not a yards case.

The 60 and the 57 are the obvious worry, and Jacksonville scores 27.3 a game on its own. Weather won't help or hurt. If Cook sits, Cincinnati is thin at safety and the Under gets weaker; Hill's status matters less, since he has already missed two games. -111 is the consensus price as of 7:54 AM ET, a 52.6% implied chance; some books are at -108, which is better, and others at -118. If you'd rather play the same read on a side, Jaguars +2.5 (-105) works.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.