Islanders vs. Rangers Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/6)

Fact checked at 11:34 AM ET, Oct 6, 2026

Odds as of Oct 6, 11:32 AM ET

Semyon Varlamov is 38 and hasn't started a regular-season game since November 29, 2024. Two partial knee replacement surgeries later, he is the expected starter for the New York Islanders (1-1-0) on Tuesday, October 6, when they visit the New York Rangers (3-1-0) at Madison Square Garden. Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, and it's the first regular-season meeting of the year between the two.

The Varlamov report firmed up late Tuesday morning. A beat writer had him in line to start after the morning skate, and the main goalie tracker listed him as confirmed as of this morning. The Islanders still hadn't announced it when we checked, so "expected" is the word. He didn't play at all last season, and the season before he went 3-4-3 with an .889 save percentage in 10 games. His last preseason start came against these same Rangers on September 25: six goals on 27 shots in a 6-1 loss. Ilya Sorokin started both Islanders games so far, a 2-1 loss at Toronto and a 6-0 win over New Jersey on Saturday in which he stopped all 37 shots. Igor Shesterkin is expected for the Rangers and isn't confirmed either. He has allowed five goals on 76 shots in three starts and was the league's first star for the week ending October 4. The Rangers lost 3-0 at Boston in their opener and have won three straight since, 5-1 over Tampa Bay, 2-0 at Detroit and 4-2 over Utah. Mathew Barzal is on injured reserve for the Islanders and has not played this season. The Rangers are without Joe Veleno, their fourth-line center and one of their top penalty killers. Nobody is on a back-to-back. The Islanders last played Saturday, the Rangers on Sunday.

The consensus price has the Rangers at -152 and the Islanders at +125, up from a Rangers -125 opener on Monday morning. The puck line is Rangers -1.5 (+173) and Islanders +1.5 (-205), and the total is 5.5 (Over -118, Under -102). I'm passing on the side and on the goal totals. The Rangers have 94% of the money and 81% of the bets, the price already moved 27 cents on the goalie news, and by late morning two major books had the Rangers' team total Under 3.5 at -170 or shorter. So both bets below are on shots on goal, which don't depend on which Islanders goalie plays or how good he is.

Islanders vs. Rangers Predictions

• Pick #1: Rangers Team Shots on Goal Under 27.5 (-127)
• Pick #2: Matthew Schaefer Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

PICK #1: Rangers Team Shots on Goal Under 27.5 (-127)

The Rangers win without shooting much, and they've been doing it for more than a season. They have 92 shots on goal in four games (24, 25, 21 and 22), an average of 23. Last season they averaged 25.2, among the fewest in the league, and finished with 27 or fewer in 55 of 82 games. That's 67.1%, and at the Garden it was 28 of 41. The price of -127 implies 55.9%.

Look at how the three wins happened. Shesterkin has stopped 71 of 76. Three of the Rangers' 11 goals went into an empty net, so they have needed only eight goals on a goalie. At 5-on-5 they have taken 46.2% of the shot attempts, and that drops to 39.7% when they're ahead. A home favorite is more likely to be protecting a lead than chasing one.

It can lose if the Islanders score first and the Rangers chase for two periods. In last season's four meetings the Rangers had 33, 27, 16 and 21 shots, and the 33 came in a 5-0 loss. The Islanders also gave up 37 shots to New Jersey on Saturday after allowing 26 at Toronto, and last season their opponents went over 27 in 39 of 82 games. Pavel Dorofeyev was brought in to shoot and has 15 shots in four games, yet the team is still at 23 a game. Overtime shots count toward the number. I found this at one major book, and it's the stronger of the two bets.

PICK #2: Matthew Schaefer Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

This is the smaller bet, and I'd call -105 a fair price, not a bargain. Schaefer had three or more shots on goal in 43 of 82 games last season. That's 52.4%, and -105 implies 51.2%, so the full-season number buys you about a point.

What tips it is his role and where he was heading. He averaged 2.7 shots and nearly 25 minutes a night as a rookie, and he had three or more in 16 of his last 20 games. He has opened this season on the top pair with Adam Pelech and on the first power-play unit, going by Saturday's lineup, though Tuesday's lines weren't out when we checked. He put three on net in nearly 28 minutes at Toronto and two in more than 20 against New Jersey. The Rangers have allowed 24.8 shots a game so far, and Schaefer's four games against them last season went 3, 2, 3 and 2, which splits this bet down the middle.

Shop for it. One major book had the Over at -105 as of this morning while another had the same bet at -136. I wouldn't lay much more than -115.

The two picks are related. If the Rangers get a lead and sit on it, both get help: fewer Rangers shots, more Islanders pressure. If the Islanders score first and protect it, both can lose on the same night.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.