Iowa vs. UConn Prediction, Women's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:06 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

No. 10 Iowa (2-0) makes its first road trip of the season to play No. 2 UConn (1-1) at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, with tipoff at 2:00 PM ET. UConn just lost 77-66 at No. 5 Michigan, a game Geno Auriemma called "the worst UConn performance" in more than two decades. The Huskies made 8 of 31 threes and turned it over 19 times, and Sarah Strong spent much of the first half on the bench in foul trouble. Back home, their defense should look like itself again. Iowa plays slowly and hasn't shot well from deep, so the Hawkeyes should land somewhere in the 50s or low 60s. Our read is a double-digit UConn win in a game that stays under the total.

Iowa vs. UConn Predictions

• Pick #1: UConn -10.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 138.5 (-110)

PICK #1: UConn -10.5 (-110)

Iowa's 2-0 start looks better on paper than it is. The Hawkeyes beat Towson 73-45 and Eastern Illinois 80-39, both at home, and their own coach has said those teams weren't at UConn's level. Even against that schedule they've made only 17 of 57 threes (29.8%). The offense runs through two bigs, McKenna Woliczko (16.0 points a game on 72.2% shooting) and Ava Heiden (11.0), plus guard Dani Carnegie (16.5).

UConn can take that away. Opponents are shooting 35.3% from the field and 25.5% from three against the Huskies, who also led the nation in fewest points allowed last season, with Strong on that team. Freshman Jovana Popovic leads them at 22.0 points a game and scored 25 on 10-of-15 shooting at Michigan, and Strong still finished with 13 there despite the fouls. UConn hasn't lost two straight since the 2022-23 season.

Iowa's rebounding is what could keep this close. The Hawkeyes have outrebounded opponents 96-52, and Michigan grabbed 12 offensive rebounds against UConn. If Iowa turns misses into second chances and keeps this in the 60s, 10.5 is a lot to lay. The -110 price implies 52.4%, and a UConn team at home with every player expected available, facing an offense that hasn't seen a defense like this, should beat that.

PICK #2: Under 138.5 (-110)

Iowa's games have been slow. They ran about 64 and 68 possessions, while UConn's ran 79 and 74. Add the opponents (Towson and Eastern Illinois for Iowa, Cornell for UConn's 100-point night) and the season scoring averages overstate what this game should produce. Iowa held its two opponents to 31.3% shooting and 18.5% from three and allows 42.0 points a game, so UConn shouldn't get the free transition baskets it piled up in its 100-35 win over Cornell.

At the other end, Iowa's shooters have been cold even against soft defenses. Something like 75-60 for UConn covers the spread and stays under. What we don't want is a repeat of Michigan, with 31 free throws, Michigan making 9 of 20 threes and the game finishing at 143.

Iowa's two games finished at 118 and 119; UConn's finished at 135 and 143. With the pace gap and Iowa's shooting, this one should land near the low end of that range. The -110 price translates to 52.4%.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.