Iowa vs. Minnesota Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:07 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:05 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 15 Iowa (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) brings the Floyd of Rosedale trophy to Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for a 3:30 PM ET kickoff against Minnesota (4-2, 2-1). Both teams are coming off a bye. Iowa has won 10 of the last 11 meetings and its last five games in Minneapolis, and Minnesota hasn't scored more than 14 points against the Hawkeyes in any of the last four meetings. Last October it scored three in a 41-3 loss in Iowa City.

Jeremy Hecklinski makes his second start at quarterback for Iowa. He went 14 of 19 for 202 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-24 win at Washington, and Kirk Ferentz kept him in the job over Hank Brown, who started the first five games and is healthy again. Iowa opened as a 2.5-point favorite on Oct. 14, and the line has moved to 7.5. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5.

We think this game gets decided on the ground. Iowa ranks in the top five nationally in yards per carry on offense and on defense. Minnesota has run 134 times for 482 yards in its five games against FBS teams, and in its two losses it gave up 252 rushing yards to Mississippi State and 305 at Purdue. The Gophers have also lost starting center Ashton Beers for the season, and defensive tackle Riley Sunram and tight end Pierce Walsh were ruled out on Friday night's availability report. Iowa should be able to run the ball, Minnesota probably won't, and that adds up to a low-scoring Hawkeyes win by more than a touchdown.

Iowa vs. Minnesota Predictions

• Pick #1: Iowa -7.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Under 40.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Iowa -7.5 (-105)

Purdue ran 47 times for 305 yards against Minnesota in a 41-13 win. Mississippi State ran 46 times for 252 in a 38-13 win. Iowa's last game looked a lot like those two: 38 carries for 263 yards at Washington, with Kamari Moulton going for 208 on 26 carries. Minnesota faces that run game without Sunram, an important piece of its defensive line.

Once Minnesota can't run, it has to lean on Drake Lindsey, and Iowa's defense took him apart last year. In the 41-3 game he went 16 of 28 for 109 yards with three interceptions, and Iowa led 31-0 at halftime. He has already thrown five interceptions this season. The -105 price implies a 51.2% chance, and with Iowa holding the edge on both lines of scrimmage, we make an eight-point win more likely than that.

Covering is the hard part. Iowa has covered 7.5 in just 2 of its 5 games against FBS teams, and two of its wins, 16-13 over Iowa State and 20-19 at Michigan, were one-score games. Minnesota beat Michigan 20-14 at home, and P.J. Fleck has had two weeks to prepare. Hecklinski has one career start, and the case assumes he starts as Ferentz announced.

PICK #2: Under 40.5 (-108)

The total has come down two points even though 63% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the Over. The matchup backs the drop. Minnesota scored 10, 12, 14 and 3 points in the last four meetings, and it scored 13 in both of its losses to FBS teams this season. Iowa allows 14.5 points a game. Give the Hawkeyes a lead and they'll keep handing it to Moulton and running the clock, and that keeps the scoreboard quiet.

The weather could help too. The National Weather Service forecast for Minneapolis has the chance of showers climbing from under 25% around kickoff to the mid-40s in the second half, with winds around 10 mph. At -108, the Under carries a 51.9% implied probability.

What beats this pick is Iowa's offense doing too much. Minnesota's four games against Power Four opponents totaled 51, 51, 34 and 54 points, and Iowa put 41 on Washington in its last game. If Iowa runs on Minnesota the way Purdue did, it could get into the 30s by itself. Both picks need the same game, something like a 24-13 Iowa win, and a shootout would hurt both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.