Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:25 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 6 Indiana (6-1) visits Michigan (4-2) at 12:00 PM ET at Michigan Stadium, a week after its first loss, 19-15 at home to Ohio State. Michigan is expected to start freshman Tommy Carr at quarterback, though the school hasn't announced it. Carr replaced Bryce Underwood at halftime against Penn State last week with Michigan down 3-0 and led three second-half touchdown drives in a 21-18 win. Underwood had started every game since arriving last year, but he completed 58.1% of his passes this season and had more turnovers (eight) than total touchdowns (seven).

Expect the defenses to run this game. Michigan allows 16.2 points, 256.5 total yards (fourth nationally) and 89.7 rushing yards a game, and nobody has scored more than 20 on it. Indiana has allowed 15.0 points a game to FBS opponents and 75.4 rushing yards a game. Indiana's running game averages 200.1 yards but managed 65 at Nebraska and 73 against Ohio State, and both times the offense went through Josh Hoover's arm: 263 and 296 passing yards in games that totaled 37 and 34 points. We expect more of the same on Saturday, a low-scoring game in which Indiana moves the ball through the air, mostly to Charlie Becker. The total has dropped from 52.5 at the open to 42.5. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, a high near 66 and light wind, so weather shouldn't be a factor.

Indiana vs. Michigan Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 42.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Charlie Becker 70+ Receiving Yards (-164)

PICK #1: Under 42.5 (-105)

Five of Michigan's six games finished under 42.5: 25 points against Western Michigan, 27 against Oklahoma, 39 against Iowa, 34 at Minnesota and 39 against Penn State. Take out the 52-17 win over UTEP and Michigan's offense has scored 13, 17, 19, 14 and 21. Underwood started all of those games. On Saturday a freshman makes his first start against a defense allowing 15.0 points a game to FBS teams. Carr can run (36 yards and a touchdown on four carries in the second half against Penn State), but Michigan threw for 90 yards as a team that day.

Indiana scores 36.6 points a game but put up 20 at Nebraska and 15 against Ohio State in its last two. Michigan held Iowa, Minnesota and Penn State to 20, 20 and 18. The Under at -105 needs to cash 51.2% of the time, and an Indiana win by a couple of scores, something like 24-13, lands at 37.

What beats it is Indiana's offense at its best. Its six games against FBS teams split three over 42.5 and three under, with 47 points at Rutgers and 52 against North Texas. A freshman quarterback can also give the ball away and hand Indiana a short field, and one or two of those can push a game this close over the number.

PICK #2: Charlie Becker 70+ Receiving Yards (-164)

When Indiana's running game stalls, the ball goes to Becker. Against Ohio State he caught nine passes for 165 yards, his best game of the season, on a day Hoover threw 40 times and Indiana scored 15 points. His yards don't need Indiana to score much.

He leads Indiana with 39 catches for 694 yards and eight touchdowns, at 17.8 yards a catch. Against FBS teams he has 70 or more in four of six games: 165 against Ohio State, 107 at Rutgers, 98 against Northwestern and 127 against Western Kentucky, where one catch went for 79. The misses were 64 against North Texas in the opener and 52 at Nebraska, where Nick Marsh caught six passes for 187 yards. The -164 price implies 62.1%, a little under his 67% rate against FBS teams, and the matchup helps him. Michigan holds opponents to 89.7 rushing yards a game, so Indiana should throw plenty again, and Penn State's Chase Sowell caught 11 passes for 151 yards against Michigan last week.

This isn't a cheap price. Michigan allows 166.8 passing yards a game, so Becker needs a big share of Indiana's passing, and Marsh can take that share any week, as he did at Nebraska. An early Indiana lead could also tilt the offense toward Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. on the ground.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.