Golden Knights vs. Wild Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/12)

Fact checked at 8:53 AM ET, Oct 12, 2026

Odds as of Oct 12, 8:52 AM ET

The Vegas Golden Knights (5-1-0) arrive in Saint Paul on a four-game winning streak and sitting first in the Western Conference with 10 points. The Minnesota Wild (3-1-1) host them Monday at 8:00 PM ET at Grand Casino Arena, on ESPN+ and Wild+. Both teams played Saturday: Vegas beat Los Angeles 2-1 in overtime, and Minnesota won 4-1 at Florida behind a Kirill Kaprizov hat trick. Both play again Tuesday, Vegas at Nashville and Minnesota at Winnipeg.

The matchup comes down to Vegas's offense against Minnesota's goaltending, and we trust the goaltending. Vegas scores 3.67 goals a game, tied for fifth in the league. Minnesota allows 1.80, second fewest. Jesper Wallstedt has started all five Wild games with a 1.78 goals-against average and a .936 save percentage, and the penalty kill has stopped 16 of 17 power plays. No Minnesota game this season has produced more than five goals.

Minnesota is a -118 favorite with Vegas at -102, and the total sits at 5.5 (Over -135, Under +114). Vegas opened as a -120 favorite with Minnesota at -100 and a total of 6.5, and no injury or lineup news explains the swing. Wallstedt and Carter Hart are the projected starters, though neither is confirmed; Calvin Pickard has yet to start for Minnesota, and Adin Hill has two starts for Vegas.

Both picks come from that same game: Wallstedt and the Wild penalty kill keep Vegas quiet, and the scoreboard stays low.

Golden Knights vs. Wild Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 5.5 Goals (+114)
• Pick #2: Tomas Hertl Under 0.5 Points (-110)

PICK #1: Under 5.5 Goals (+114)

Look at Minnesota's five finals: a 3-1 win at Nashville, 4-1 over Boston, 3-2 overtime and regulation losses at Buffalo and Tampa Bay, then 4-1 at Florida. None got past five goals. Vegas has played in looser games, but two of its six also stayed under this number, Saturday's 2-1 overtime win among them. Add it up and 7 of the 11 games these teams have played went under 5.5, and we get plus money on that outcome. A +114 price implies a 46.7% chance.

What could sink it is Vegas's shot volume. The Golden Knights average 33 shots a game and Minnesota allows 28, which means Wallstedt's .936 is doing a lot of the work, and it won't stay that high all season. If Pickard gets the start instead, we like this less.

PICK #2: Tomas Hertl Under 0.5 Points (-110)

Hertl's five points look healthy until you see that four came in one night, the 6-2 win at Seattle. In his other five games he has one point, and he has been held off the sheet in four of six. He has logged between 14:41 and 17:23 each night, centering the third line with Trevor Connelly and Raphael Lavoie in Vegas's latest line report.

He does sit on the first power-play unit, and that is the real threat here. All three of his goals came on the man advantage; his only even-strength points are the two assists at Seattle. Tonight that power play runs into a penalty kill that has allowed one goal in 17 chances. At -110, the market gives him a 52.4% chance of going pointless, and if the game stays under 5.5, his chances of a point drop with it.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.