Golden Knights vs. Penguins Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:47 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:23 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

The Golden Knights (9-5-2) visit the Penguins (5-7-2) at PPG Paints Arena, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET. Vegas lost 3-2 in a shootout in Boston last night, so this is the back end of a back-to-back for a team that is 1-3-2 in its last six. We think Pittsburgh's offense runs through Erik Karlsson and its top power-play unit tonight, against a Vegas penalty kill that has stopped only 70% of power plays this season. At the other end, we expect a quiet night from Ivan Barbashev, a low-volume shooter on the Vegas top line who doesn't play on the first power play.

Neither club has named a starter. Adin Hill and Carter Hart are both possible for Vegas after Hart played in Boston, and Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov are both projected for Pittsburgh. Lines and power-play units below are projections. Books don't all grade player props the same way when a game reaches overtime.

Golden Knights vs. Penguins Predictions

• Pick #1: Erik Karlsson Over 0.5 Assists (-130)
• Pick #2: Ivan Barbashev Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135)

PICK #1: Erik Karlsson Over 0.5 Assists (-130)

Karlsson has 13 assists in 14 games and leads Pittsburgh with 16 points. He's picked up at least one assist in 10 of those games. He plays about 23 minutes a night on the top pair with Spencer Stastney, and he runs the first power-play unit with Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Tommy Novak and Ville Koivunen. Six of his points have come with the man advantage.

Vegas's penalty kill ranks in the bottom seven of the league, and in Boston it gave up a power-play goal 34 seconds into a five-minute major. Karlsson works Pittsburgh's top unit from the point, so any goal it scores gives him a good shot at an assist.

At -130 the price implies 56.5%, and his rate this season is well above that. Last season was thinner (51 assists in 75 games), so we're leaning on the role he has now. The risk is penalties. Pittsburgh has drawn among the fewest power plays in the league, and if this stays five-on-five, his path narrows to even strength.

PICK #2: Ivan Barbashev Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135)

Barbashev has 21 shots in 16 games and has stayed at one or fewer in 11 of them, including one shot in Boston last night. He plays left wing on the top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, but those two take most of that line's shots, and Barbashev is on the second power-play unit, not the first.

The -135 price implies 57.4%, and he has cleared that this season. Last season he averaged about 1.6 shots a game (133 in 82), which would put this closer to a coin flip, so the bet depends on how Vegas is using him now. It fits the game we expect, too. We wouldn't count on a jump in volume on the second night of a back-to-back, and every minute Vegas spends killing penalties is a minute its top line isn't attacking.

What beats it is a promotion to the first unit, or a night when Eichel and Stone start feeding him instead of shooting. He had four shots against Calgary and three against New Jersey this season, so the ceiling is there.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.