Giants vs. Texans Prediction, NFL Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/25)

Fact checked at 8:54 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Odds as of 8:03 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

The Giants come to Houston at 3-2-1 and in first place in the NFC East, and they bring a quarterback who has never started a game for them. J.J. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota in September, gets the start after coach John Harbaugh named him the starter this week and moved Jameis Winston to backup. McCarthy got a preview last week, replacing Winston with 11:25 left in a 34-27 loss to New Orleans and going 11 of 21 for 243 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Texans are 2-4, but they've won two straight after an 0-4 start, most recently 34-31 over Jacksonville in London.

The line has run hard toward Houston. The Texans opened as 5.5-point favorites and now lay 10.5 (-107), with the moneyline at -529 and the total down to 42.5 from 43.5. In between, the Giants turned to McCarthy and lost three defensive starters: linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (now on injured reserve), safety Jevón Holland and cornerback Greg Newsome II, all ruled out on the final injury report. Houston is without safeties Reed Blankenship and Jalen Pitre and running back David Montgomery.

Houston controls this game, and C.J. Stroud moves the ball through his wide receivers against a short-handed Giants secondary without ever needing to force a throw. With Dalton Schultz back, the Texans' second tight end sits low on the target list. Both picks win in that game, and both lose in the same one: a Houston team chasing points. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Reliant Stadium, on FOX.

Giants vs. Texans Predictions

• Pick #1: C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 Interceptions (-128)
• Pick #2: Foster Moreau Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

PICK #1: C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 Interceptions (-128)

Stroud has thrown one interception on 219 passes this season, and it came in the London win over Jacksonville, the same game in which he threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns and won AFC Offensive Player of the Week. He has gone without an interception in 5 of his 6 games.

The Giants are missing the players most likely to take the ball away. Holland, a starting safety, and Newsome, a starting cornerback, are both out with concussions, and Edmunds, who wore the green dot and called the defense, is on injured reserve. Meanwhile Stroud has more places to go with the ball. Nico Collins and Jaylin Noel are joined by Marvin Harrison Jr., who debuted in London, and Tank Dell, who is set to play his first game in 673 days. Noel ranks second in the league at 19.6 yards per catch. A quarterback with that many options against a patched-up secondary can take what's there.

The -128 price implies a 56.1% chance. What would beat us is Houston falling behind. If McCarthy's offense hits early, Stroud throws more often and into tighter windows. He threw 55 passes in a 20-6 home loss to Cincinnati in Week 2 and still didn't throw a pick, but that's the kind of afternoon that produces one.

PICK #2: Foster Moreau Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Moreau's receiving numbers stay small even when he plays a lot. In the five games in which he played at least a third of Houston's offensive snaps, he had 15, 7, 1, 8 and 7 receiving yards, four of them under 8.5. Last week's 7 came with Schultz limited to 40% of the snaps after a quad injury and Moreau on the field for 62%. He caught two touchdowns that day and still stayed under this number. The -110 price implies 52.4%.

Schultz is back. He went from no practice to a limited session to a full one and carries no game status on Houston's final injury report. Brevin Jordan, the other Texans tight end on the report, finished the week as a full participant too. With Collins, Noel, Harrison and Dell all active, the second tight end sits well down the target list, and the Giants allow 198.7 passing yards per game, fourth fewest in the league.

Moreau's one big game shows how this loses: 34 yards on two catches in that 20-6 loss to Cincinnati, when Stroud threw 55 times. A Houston team playing from in front throws less and spreads it to its receivers. One catch-and-run would still clear 8.5, and the Giants' pass defense numbers were built with Holland and Newsome on the field, so this secondary is thinner than its season average.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.