Giants vs Patriots NFL Week 13 MNF Best Picks

Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a Monday Night Football AFC–NFC showdown in primetime. The New York Giants head to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots in a matchup featuring two teams trending in very different directions. 

New York enters at 2-10, having fired head coach Brian Daboll two weeks ago as the season spiraled early. They do get some good news, as young quarterback Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion after missing the past two games.

The Patriots, meanwhile, sit at 10-2 and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Year 2 has been a breakout season for Drake Maye, who has taken a major leap in command, efficiency and decision-making under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ABC and ESPN, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the broadcast. Expect a controlled, physical contest with New England looking to maintain its playoff stranglehold and the Giants simply trying to find positives amid a difficult season

Giants vs Patriots predictions

Pick #1: New England Patriots -7.5 over New York Giants (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 46.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: TreVeyon Henderson (NE) over 67.5 rushing yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Patriots -7.5 over Giants (-110) Click Here to Bet

While a spread under double digits may look inviting for Giants backers, the on-field matchup tells a different story. New York has had one of the worst run defenses in football all season, allowing explosive gains at an alarming rate. The Giants' defense has been gashed on the ground all year, giving up the second-most rushing yards to running backs and allowing an alarming 6.2 yards per carry. That sets up perfectly for a Patriots offense that has found its identity behind a strong run game as of late and improved efficiency from Drake Maye.

Even with Jaxson Dart returning, the Giants remain a team in transition with an interim coaching staff with Mike Kafka leading the way. This is the first game he and Dart will work together as head coach at quarterback. The Patriots, meanwhile, are playing complementary football, winning in the trenches and rarely beating themselves with turnovers. At home, with the number-one seed push in full swing, New England has the coaching, continuity and roster strength to control this game. Laying 7.5 points feels like the right side given the clear gap in momentum and execution between these teams.

Pick #2: Over 46.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Although the Giants are lacking playmakers in Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers due to season-ending injuries, their offense has figured out a way to put things together over the past two weeks. Jameis Winston has looked sharp at quarterback, totaling 336 and 494 total yards in his two starts. They may be playing from behind early, which could create more passing volume and scoring opportunities. And even if the Giants only contribute modestly, the Patriots are in a prime spot to do the heavy lifting themselves.

New England’s offense has hit a groove, especially with their balanced approach. Maye has been sharp pushing the ball downfield and with Henderson softening defenses, explosive plays have become more frequent. Facing a Giants defense that allows massive rush gains and struggles to get off the field, the Patriots should have no problem putting up points. Add in the possibility of late-game garbage-time scoring for New York and the over becomes a realistic target.

Pick #3: TreVeyon Henderson over 67.5 rushing yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

This is one of the cleanest prop reads on the board. The Giants have been a sieve against the run, giving up 6.2 yards per carry to opposing backs, one of the worst marks in the league. TreVeyon Henderson has been the centerpiece of the Patriots’ offense recently, logging at least 14 carries in each of his last four games and running with confidence and burst. Even with Rhamondre Stevenson returning last week, Henderson saw 18 carries and Stevenson saw just six.

Everything aligns for another productive night with a favorable matchup, consistent volume, a home environment and a likely positive game script. If the Patriots get out to any kind of lead, Henderson should continue to be heavily featured as they salt away the clock. Clearing 67.5 rushing yards is well within reach, given the matchup and his recent workload.